Forex blog: Forex Blog (6 сообщений)

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Forex Blog
My Forex experience and some Forex related information that might be useful to other traders
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EUR/USD Slightly Up, Still Below Week Open
EUR/USD rose slightly today after some strong volatility that it showed yesterday. Overall it still remains in the red zone this week. The released indicators are still very pessimistic for the U.S. dollar. But they rarely matter in the current global financial conditions. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2493.

Initial jobless claims rose from 515,000 to 542,000 last week, setting a new record level since 1992. They were expected to go down to 504,000.

Leading indicators of the U.S. economy decreased by 0.8% in October after rising by 0.3% a month before. Although, the forecasts were also quite pessimistic (-0.6%), the release had some surprise for the traders in it.

Philadelphia Fed index dropped from -37.5 to -39.3 in November. The market analysts expected it to correct slightly — to -35.0.
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Consumer Prices and Housing Fall in U.S., Dollar Goes Up
EUR/USD jumped up today after the two important macroeconomic reports were released today — CPI and new housing starts. But after reaching a peak at 1.2813 EUR/USD corrected and snapped the daily growth. The currency pair is now trading near 1.2578.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October. This declined followed the stagnation in September and exceeded analysts’ forecast (0.8% fall). The lower prices were mostly caused by the cheap oil and energy components.

Housing starts were reported at seasonally adjusted annual rate of 791,000 in October, down from 828,000 in September. It’s still better than the average forecast — 708,000. Building permits at seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000 in October — below both 805,000 in September and 772,000 forecast for October.

U.S. crude oil inventories added 1.6 million barrels during the week ending on November 14th after remaining unchanged a week before. They are still in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

The FOMC minutes for September 29 and October 7, 28-29 meetings were also released today. But they didn’t change the way the currencies are trading much, because, despite the large portion of the information presented in the report, there was little new for the traders in the them. The main idea is that the economy is deteriorating, the liquidity is low and the inflation is out of the focus. Fed projects that the GDP will continue to fall down in the second half of 2008 and in the first half of 2009, picking up in the late 2009 and beginning a normal growth in 2010. Fed looks quite optimistically on the markets’ future, considering the measures taken by the Federal Reserve itself, the government of the United States and the central banks of the other countries.
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EUR/USD Down After Negative PPI, Steady Foreign Inflow
EUR/USD was trading with a very limited volatility today and currently stays slightly below the opening level after another portion of the mixed macroeconomic statistics came from U. S. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.2586.

PPI (Producer Price Index) dropped by 2.8% in October after declining by 0.4% in September. It should have dropped only by 1.8%, according to the analysts’ forecast. Core PPI gained 0.4% — the same as in October and more than 0.1% growth expected by the analysts.

Net purchases of the long-term U.S. securities were at $66.2 billion in September after $21.0 billion in August (revised up from $14.0 billion). It exceeded the forecast value ($17.5 billion) by almost 4 times. The purchases are probably going to grow even in October as the U. S. Treasury securities were very popular among the investors during the crisis.
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Band Moving Average — Pull-Back Indicator
One of my site’s visitors offered me an interesting idea for the MetaTrader indicator. At first glance the indicator is very simple and quite useless. The general idea was to modify the standard Moving Average indicator that comes with MT4, so that the two more bands would be added to it. One band should be below the main line by 2% and the other — above by 2%. Then this indicator could be used as the pull-back detector: when the price breaks through the upper band on the long-term bearish trend — it’s a signal to sell and when the price break through the lower band on the long-term bullish trend — it’s a signal to buy. I’ve made this idea into the real MT4 indicator — Band Moving Average (BMA). It’s a standard MT4 Moving Average indicator with those two bands added and an additional parameter (Percentage) to set the difference between the main line and the bands (2% by default). Now you can download it for free from my site. Here’s how it looks when you attach it to the chart:

The author of the idea of this indicator suggest the following strategy for its usage:
1. Attach it to EUR/USD M30 chart using simple MA with 49 period and set the Percentage to 2.0 — those are default settings.
2. When the long-term trend of the currency pair is bearish (like nowadays) sell if the price closes above the upper band.
3. When the long-term trend is bullish buy if the price closes below the lower band.
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EUR/USD Up on Mixed U.S. Fundamentals
EUR/USD grew up today after some bearish weekly gap and a major decline last Friday. The U. S. fundamentals that were reported today showed some mixed results, probably, hurting the dollar’s positions on the Forex market. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2670.

NY Empire State index declined in November from -24.6 to -25.4, showing a further contraction in the manufacturing sector. The median forecast by the market analysts was at -26.0, so this report came out slightly better than expected.

Industrial production unexpectedly increased by 1.3% in October after falling down by 3.7% (revised down from 2.8% decline) in September. Meanwhile, the capacity utilization rose to 76.4% from 75.5% in September (revised down from 76.4%). Industrial production was expected to decline by 0.2% and capacity utilization was expected to remain at 76.4%.
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Forex Technical Analysis for 11/17—11/21 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.1815	1.2102	1.2353	1.2640	1.2891	1.3178	1.3429
GBP/USD	1.2909	1.3733	1.4236	1.5060	1.5563	1.6387	1.6890
USD/JPY	89.52	91.99	94.53	97.00	99.54	102.01	104.55
EUR/JPY	106.43	112.06	117.20	122.83	127.97	133.60	138.74

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.2093	1.2335	1.2631	1.2873	1.3169
GBP/USD	1.3733	1.4236	1.5060	1.5563	1.6387
USD/JPY	91.99	94.53	97.00	99.54	102.01
EUR/JPY	112.06	117.20	122.83	127.97	133.60

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.2308	1.2456	1.2505	1.2555	1.2653	1.2703	1.2752	1.2900
GBP/USD	1.4009	1.4374	1.4496	1.4617	1.4861	1.4982	1.5104	1.5469
USD/JPY	94.30	95.68	96.14	96.60	97.52	97.98	98.44	99.82
EUR/JPY	116.43	119.39	120.38	121.36	123.34	124.32	125.31	128.27

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance	1.3035	1.5975	100.78	130.79
Support	1.2497	1.4648	95.77	120.02

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.2927	1.5884	99.48	128.45
61.8%	1.2721	1.5377	97.57	124.34
50.0%	1.2658	1.5221	96.98	123.07
38.2%	1.2595	1.5064	96.38	121.79
23.6%	1.2516	1.4870	95.65	120.22
0.0%	1.2389	1.4557	94.47	117.68