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- Not-So-Happy Holidays For US Retailers
With the worlds’ equity markets becoming more stable, investors seem to be split on the near-term future of the U.S. economy. Some say the worst is behind us, others are calling the current stability a dead-cat bounce.
While arguments can be made for either side, one theme everyone seems to agree on is an abysmal holiday season is around the corner, as far as retailers are concerned.
Pinching the Purse StringsEven if the “bottom is in”, economic recovery is usually 6 months or more behind … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - US Earnings Preview For Nov 10 - 14
Earnings season for the retail sector starts.
Dow (^DJI) component Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) will be joined by fellow S&P 500 members Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl’s (KSS) and Macy’s (M). Approximately 10% of the companies reporting will be from the retail sector.
Outside of the retail sector, there will not be many reports that should influence market direction. The most notable names will be Agilent Technology (A), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Tyco International (TYC). … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Getting Ready For (Economic) Winter
Each day raises fresh questions about why Wall Street’s best and brightest failed to anticipate one of history’s nastiest financial crises and the worst economic downturn in decades, even though ample warning signs were there for all to see.
Even Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II was troubled enough to ask why “no one spotted the credit crunch” or saw “a world financial crisis looming,” according to a report from Agence France Presse. [Clearly, she and her advisors had not ... [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Crude Oil Bottoming? Yes!
Indicators are pointing to a reversal in crude oil. We could be setting up a move higher in crude, a move lower in the USD and a move higher in both gold and the equity … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Berkshire Hathaway's 3Q Net Income Falls 77%
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A), (BRK-B), in a regulatory filing said Friday the co.’s 3Q’08 net income fell 77% to $1.06 billion, ($682/Class A share) from $4.55 billion ($2,942/share), in last year’s first quarter.
Operating profit in Berkshire’s insurance underwriting business, which is the company’s core commercial activity, dropped 83% to $81 million from $486 million on a YoY basis. The co.’s operating earnings fell as well by registering a drop of 19.3% to … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Signs Of Tough Times Ahead
The US markets closed the Elections week with a tone of pessimism for the months to come. Over this week the markets recorded one of the worst two consecutive sessions since 1987, falling in two sessions more than 10%. The pessimism came to the investors’ mind again, after the giant Cisco (CSCO) revised down their forecasts, the first revenue drop in five years because of the financial crisis. In addition to this, the macro economic data are still not showing signs of stabilization in … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Cheapest S&P 500 Companies Based On 2009 Low Estimates
As the economy deteriorates, one of the first casualties will be corporate profits. Earnings estimates have been falling very fast for 2009. Recently estimate cuts for 2009 have been running at about 8x the number of estimate increases. P/E-based valuations become tricky in such an environment — you are shooting at a moving target. One way around this is to focus on the low (or most pessimistic) estimate, rather than on the mean estimate. Assume that everyone else will move to … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Correlation Between The Unemployment Rate And Actions Of The Stock Market
Another choppy day on Wall Street that included a major economic number and a presser from our president-elect ended on the highs. The Dow (^DJI) finished with a gain of 248 points or 2.9%, but was down 4% for the week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also dropped 4% on the week, but was up 26 points or 2.9% today. The NASDAQ (^IXIC) lagged a bit, gaining 2.4% or 38 points.
THE BOTTOMLINE: I do not like to toot my own horn, but yesterday I highlighted the massive sell-off in front of the … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Copper Prices Could Reverse Next Week
MACD and RSI are moving higher, while the copper price continues to move lower. This could be fortelling a reversal in the price of … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Yen Resumes Uptrend…So Much For The Carry Trade
The Rydex Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) has resumed its short-term uptrend after successfully testing support at its 34 day moving average last Tuesday. The FXY retraced slightly more than 50% of its move from its August lows to October highs. Today (Thursday) it closed @ 102.12. A full 62% retracement from its recent low @ 99 would take it to @ 105 while a 100% retracement would send it back to @ 108.79.
Market fundamentals are such that analysts at Deutsche Bank (DB), UBS … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Wall Street Takes 14-Year High Unemployment Rate With A Grain Of Salt
The market finishes the week higher after the worst two-day decline since the 1987 stock market crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased 248 points, or 2.85% for the day, and 3.4% for the week. Similarly, the S&P (^GSPC) rose 2.86%, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) moved 2.41% in the green. Investors must have felt the after-election fall wasn’t completely justified, as signaled by today’s increase. Either that, or the 14-year high unemployment rate was taken with more … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - BP's Wind Power Plan Sails Ahead To U.S.
London-based and the world’s third largest global energy company BP PLC (BP) announced Friday that will end its planned wind power projects in Britain, India, China and Turkey and instead focus the bulk of its $8 bln renewables spending on the United States.
The decision, notes the Guardian newspaper, is a major blow to the prime minister, Gordon Brown, who has promised to eliminate all impediments to ensure Britain is at the forefront of the green energy revolution. UK aims to supply … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Jim Cramer Still Confused
A friend brought an article to my attention today written by Jim Cramer entitled, “Cramer: Four Reasons to be Skittish.” Cramer starts off the article as follows:
People ask me why I am so often freaked out about what is happening daily in this market. Let me give you four reasons: Sheldon Adelson, Sumner Redstone, Howard Lester and Aubrey McClendon.All four of these gentlemen got overextended and bought too much of their own stock or the stock of another company and got margined … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Time To Get Out Of General Motors NOW?
My opinion, if you’re not already out of General Motors (GM) then bail now. I believe that the news today is suggesting that they could declare bankruptcy. They’re currently suggesting that they may not have the cash resources to finish out the year. This could be a great thing for GM, the company. If GM declares some sort of bankruptcy, they could still operate while they re-org the company. The loss of vehicle sales has seriously impaired their ability to even limp … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - ETFs Reversing Two Bad Days Amid Gloomy Reports
Two days of losses in the markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) are showing signs of reversal midday (Friday) as bargain-hunters storm the house.
The attraction of low stock prices has investors’ attention. A worse-than-expected unemployment report didn’t deter those in search of bargains, even though the U.S. unemployment rate is at a 14-year high of 6.5%, reports Sara Lepro for Associated Press.
Investors have been optimistic toward the economy before, buying up bargain stocks only … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US October Employment Report Ugly
This morning, the BLS released the employment report for October. The text of the release is below, with my comments interspersed.
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised.Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - VIX Jumps 10% On Consecutive Days
In most of the world, yesterday’s big news was that the S&P 500 index fell 5% for the second day in a row. Here at VIX Central, I was also interested to note that the VIX jumped 10% for the second day in a row, something that has happened on nine previous occasions going back to 1990.
From a market timing perspective, the history of consecutive double digit jumps in the VIX does show a significant bullish bias going forward, but not one that develops until after the first day. In … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - S&P 500 - Watch 897 Level
The lows of yesterday are now very important to the future direction of the market. If 897 fails to hold then selling pressure will rise significantly.
The economic situation has continued to deteriorate rapidly and evidence of that is showing up in all sectors. The next sector to be rapidly cutting jobs will be the state and local governments. We have already had some announcements of job cuts in that sector, however I expect that to rise significantly in the coming months.
Two … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - PowerShares Cutting Fees On Some Of Its ETFs
Last week, PowerShares cut expenses on its lineup of fundamental index exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Murray Coleman for Index Universe interviewed Ed McRedmond, senior vice president, on the latest developments at PowerShares, including the decision to cut those fees.
The main reason the ratios were cut on the RAFI indexes is that they are positioned as an alternative to a traditional market-cap weighted index. The FTSE RAFI indexes have very low turnover, which provides somewhat … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Jim Rogers On The Market Outlook
Here’s a great video from Jim Rogers. Jim covers commodities, the dollar, and U.S. Treasuries among other things.
Rogers, by the way, has been spot on in all of ” big calls” going back years now. In fact, it is almost as if he has seen this movie before—like in the 70’s when he made his first fortune.
Have a great … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Non-Farm Payrolls: October Collapse
The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October’s payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K. The … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Coming Europeanization Of The U.S. Economy?
Good News: In the last 15 years from 1994 to 2008, the U.S. jobless rate has never exceeded 7% and has averaged 5.1%. In contrast, other developed economies in Europe like Germany have never had a jobless rate less than 7% during that period, and German unemployment has averaged 8.7% (see chart above).
Bad News: The U.S. jobless rate is now approaching Germany’s, and is within 1% of Germany’s unemployment rate for the first time in at least 15 years (see chart above). Could this … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Risk Avoidance Pushes Bond Yields Lower
Risk avoidance is the name of the game. Capital is flowing back to the US and invested in T-Bills. Pretty soon, the yield on T-Bills, which was down to the annual rate of +0.315% yesterday, could go to zero, which means that effectively nobody is willing to take a risk.
Brother, can you lend me a dime? How sad it is that this refrain from the Great Depression is now, Brother can you lend me two or three dollars?
The DJIA (-443.48 -4.85% to 8695.79), S&P 500 (-47.89 -5.03% to … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - General Motors Earnings
REPORTS Q3 -$4.45 V -$3.70E, (REPORTS Q3 -$7.35 V -$3.70E(EX ITEMS))
R $37.9B V $39.4BE
- Global market share 13% -0.7% y/y
- Q3 impairment charge
- GM reported charges of $652M relating to its commitments as part of Delphi’s bankruptcy proceedings, $251M for impairment of investments in GMAC, and $641M in restructuring-related and other charges.
- Q3 include $1.5B of expenses related to mark-to-market changes in the value of GM’s commodity and foreign exchange hedging contracts, … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Global Investing Roundups: Macy's, Wal-Mart, Cisco, Fidelity
Retailers 3Q Earnings Dismal; Cisco Sees Small Biz Sales Growth; Blackstone Posts $502 million 3Q Loss; IEA Sees $100 Oil Average; Mattel Toying with Job Cuts; Direct TV Earnings Up; Fidelity Cuts 1,300 jobs; Jobless Claims Fall
October sales dropped for big-name retailers Macy’s Inc. (M), Target Corp. (TGT) and Gap Inc. (GPS) a result of continuing job losses and widespread credit drought that took the spirit out of consumer spending. Same-store sales climbed 2.4% at … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Treasury Department Is Choking On Debt, But You Don't Have To
The U.S. Treasury Department announced Nov. 3 that it intended to borrow a record $550 billion in the fourth quarter. That represents a staggering $408 billion increase over Treasury’s borrowing estimate from early August and includes $260 billion for the recapitalization of U.S. banks.
Make no mistake about it: There will be enough U.S. Treasury bonds to choke on, as the government tries to finance this debt.
In the three months to Sept. 30, the Treasury Department borrowed $530 … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Time To Wait Patiently For Opportunities
Fellow trader jdpeak over at Shark Investing posted this quote yesterday:
Do you have patience to wait till your mud settles and the water is clear?
Can you remain unmoving till the right action arises by itself?Lao Tzu
Tao Te Ching
I now have that printed and placed where I can see it while I am trading. The conscious decision not to trade is just as important as the choices we make when actively trading.Today the water is a little muddy from my perspective, although I am … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Quotes From Great Investors
It is at times like these that it makes sense to reflect on the principles that have stood some of the world’s greatest investors in good stead over the decades. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Bank Of England's Rate Cut: Better Late Than Never
Zowie!
Macro Man tips his hat to Merv the Swerve and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Your author has been critical of Mr. King in the past, but is pleased to see that Merv has belatedly seen the light; namely, that policy easing is required to prevent depression, not recession.
Despite the fact that Macro Man’s indicator suggested that the BOE should ease dramatically, he was skeptical; so much so that he had put on some small bets on disappointment, per yesterday’s … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Yahoo! Searching For Answers After Google Walks Away From Ad Deal
By Mike Caggeso
It’s got to be frustrating for Jerry Yang.
The 40-year-old co-founder and CEO of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) is sitting on top of the world’s most popular web site, yet he can’t compete with Google Inc.’s (GOOG) more effective search-engine advertising machine.
Google rubbed more sand in Yang’s eyes Wednesday when it walked away from a plan announced in June to sell advertisements on Yahoo’s pages after the Justice Department threatened to block the deal on antitrust … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Aircastle Stock Seems Seriously Undervalued
At the risk of repeating myself, I really do not understand why the market values Aircastle Ltd. (AYR) as low as it does. The aircraft leasing company has great cash flow, pays a nice dividend and has a low debt to value ratio. Let me lay out the facts and remember the current share price as I write this is $5.63 and the market cap of the company is $442 million. Figures are from today’s 3rd quarter earnings release.
Aircastle’s modern fleet of aircraft has a book value of $4.0 … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Is Gold Decoupling From Equities And Commodities Tumble?
Gold continues to consolidate between $700/oz and $760/oz and looks set to rechallenge $800/oz in the coming days as safe haven buying reemerges on continuing concerns regarding the global financial system and economy.
Gold was down marginally yesterday (some 1%). It surged after the Bank of England’s massive interest rate cut of 150 bps but more counterintuitive trading was seen as gold was aggressively sold by US investment banks on the COMEX who did not appear to want to see gold … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Commentary: Traders Disappointed With Small ECB Rate Cut
Euro
The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today (Friday) as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2780 level and was supported around the $1.2650 level. Yesterday, the European Central Bank reduced its main refinancing rate by 50bps to 3.25%. Many traders signaled disappointment with the 50bps move, noting BoE reduced rates by 150bps yesterday and even Swiss National Bank cut rates by 50bps in an unexpected move. ECB President Trichet … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Financial Stocks Are Threatening A Larger-Scale Breakdown
Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts have declared that the bottom is in, and the bear market has ended.
We have now come full circle: our market timing indicators are giving us a full house buy signal,” said the statement. “Each of the four indicators - valuation, capitulation, risk, fundamentals - tells us to buy.
The report goes on to say that their timing models are right 80-90% of the time (a number they pulled from you-know-where), but if they are wrong “the move the other way can be … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Obama Rally And Market Strategy
Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news. The markets had a nice run-up of nearly 20% in the week prior to the election. This can’t all be attributed to an expected Obama victory, but it was likely one of the factors.
Now, it’s the morning after (well, the afternoon of the morning after the morning after), and it seems both Democrats and Republicans are selling shares once again. I’m guessing that Obama’s supporters are selling some shares to replenish their cash after funding his … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Natural Gas Prices In The US Fall 80% To A 6.5 Year Low
With all of the attention recently on falling oil and gasoline prices, there hasn’t been much attention on falling natural gas prices, which recently fell to levels not seen since early March of 2002, more than 6.5 years ago! Since the most recent peak in late June, natural gas prices have fallen by almost 80% (see chart above).
Bottom Line: Because of the significant decline in natural gas prices, we can expect lower electricity prices, and lower home heating costs this winter, and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - How Obama's Win Could Lift Muni Bond ETFs
The election of Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States will help out certain exchange traded fund (ETF) sectors more than others. The municipal bond market could be one beneficiary, based on an analysis of their economic recovery proposals and interviews with market participants and economists.
Of course, this all assumes that he’s able to get his proposals and policies through.
The steps taken by the federal government to combat the crisis are already sending the … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Caution Ahead Of US Employment Report
The market continued where it left off yesterday and we are into day two of the Obama Sell-Off. The Dow (^DJI) closed down 443 points or 4.9% at 8695. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tumbled 5% or 47 points to 904. The NASDAQ (^IXIC) actually held up the best despite negative news from Cisco (CSCO) last night, falling 72 points or 4.3%.
THE BOTTOMLINE: The markets have given back about two-thirds of last week's gains and are now in danger of falling back to the lows of October. This would … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Rate Cuts, Rate Cuts, Rate Cuts
A year ago there was general worry amongst the investment community that the Fed was keeping rates too low. Inflation expectations were high, commodities were soaring and the stock market was performing well - capital was easily accessible. The Fed and other central banks insisted that their main goal was price stability, they were concerned about inflation, but maintained that risks existed to both sides.
Then 2008 came around and within a few months the Fed was criticized for not cutting … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Stock Market Summary: Unemployment Data Friday
Tomorrow (Friday) we get the US government’s monthly unemployment data. Projections of just how bad it will be have been actively discussed in the financial community today. The general consensus in that the report will show a loss of 200,000 jobs for October with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%.
We know from real world statistics that the employment situation in this country is rapidly deteriorating. The problem with the Government’s unemployment data is that it is always skewed … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging The Market In A Brave New World
Congratulations, Barack Obama on your Presidential victory. Thank you for restoring our trust and belief that votes do matter. Democracy is alive and well.
Having said that, put the party hats away and the champagne on ice, because America is in for a sober awakening. It is clear that the incoming Obama administration must not wait until the traditional inaugural swearing into office to put a mandate forward. Our country’s economy cannot afford the luxury of a post-election honeymoon period … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Market Volatility Won't Allow Take And Hold Positions
There’s a lot of ink that this post election market is one of the worst in history. But, perhaps a little perspective is in order. When the current president [we can't use his name] first won in 2000 we were entering a bear market that began with the dotcom collapse [you remember that I suppose] and on into a recession.
Volume picked-up some today (Thursday) with more selling and breadth is as negative as you might expect. As it turned out yesterday was a 10/90 day as declines and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Global Markets: Ugly Thursday For Equities
We continue to have ugly days. I have used that word far too often in the past few weeks. Look at the table below; every stock market in the world was negative. For a change, the doomsayers are being cautious in their prognostications. Governments around the world have managed to exceed every expectation for incompetence.
Is this new global sell-off a welcome and warning to the Marxist President-elect of the United States or is it a continuing resounding send-off to Mr Bush. I am hoping it … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - History Not On Side Of Consumer Staples ETFs
Exchange traded fund (ETF) investors have had small fortunes ravaged by the bear, sometimes seemingly overnight. The fear that surfaces in volatile markets usually drives an investor to make an emotionally charged decision, selling stocks or ETFs at a loss, rather than bargain-hunting while the opportunity presents.
The so-called safe havens of the bear markets is areas such as consumer staples, which represents segments of the market that are always in demand, such as food and medicine. But … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Just How Low Can Crude Oil Go?
I must admit I’ve been shocked by the massive, unrelenting sell-off in crude oil. Let’s look at the current daily chart structure to see what clues we can glean from price information.
Daily Crude Oil:
Price peaked above $145 in July prior to the global recession realization (or anticipation thereof) and has slid to fresh 2008 lows near $60 per barrel, meeting the forecasts of the most bearish prognosticators and leaving those with bullish targets above $200 per barrel … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Two Big Down Days But No Volume Spike…Yet?
With the two huge spikes down in price - two 400+ point days down on the DJIA (^DJI) - the volume has not spiked. This is a positive sign. The sellers might be drying up on the downside, either that or we haven’t really seen the “grand finale” … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Top 20 Credit Default Swaps By Net Notional Exposure
Interesting chart from Paul Kedrosky’s “Infectious Greed” Blog, depicting the “net notional” and “gross notional” credit default swaps (CDS) exposure for various countries and companies.
Courtesy of Infectious Greed
So you’re aware the “net notional” reflects the net amount of debt being covered by various CDS, after adjusting for hedges, longs, shorts, etc. The reason for this is that people often hedge their CDS positions, and/or you have situations where party A owes party B … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Trading: British Pound Down Sharply Against Dollar On Shocking Big Cut In UK Rates
Euro
The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today (Thursday) as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2710 level and was capped around the $1.2955 level. The European Central Bank reduced its main refinancing rate by 50bps to 3.25%. Many traders signaled disappointment with the 50bps move, noting BoE reduced rates by 150bps and even Swiss National Bank cut rates by 50bps in an unexpected move. ECB President Trichet reported “I don’t exclude … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Cisco Goes Cold, Nasdaq Heads Lower
It’s been a tough two days for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, led lower today (Thursday) by tech bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO)
After the close yesterday the tech giant did the unthinkable and guided lower on what is now a global slowdown. That’s the news that has helped to turn the markets red today.
A bellwether, by the way, is loosely defined as anything that tends to create, influence or set trends.
It comes from the Middle English word “bellewether” and has nothing actually to … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Actual Fed Funds Rate Is Now Below 0.25%
The Fed used to do a much better job of actually targeting its Fed Funds target, see chart above (click to enlarge) showing data since late January 2008 when the Fed lowered its target from 3.5% to 3% (data here).
The blue line is the Fed Funds target and the red line is the actual Fed Funds rate. When the Fed lowered the target to 1.5%, the actual Fed Fund rate was closer to 1%, and now that the target is 1%, the actual Fed Funds rate has been below .25% for the last five … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Meredith Whitney Says Banks Are Still Expensive
It was Halloween 2007 when Meredith Whitney suggested that Citigroup (C) was a growing train wreck since the ratio of tangible assets fell to 2.8%, the lowest in decades. She even said Citigroup may have to cut its dividend, raise cash, or sell assets to raise more than $30 billion to raise capital.
And she was right. The stock, still a train wreck, has lost about 50% since she spoke.
But Citigroup wasn’t the only bank to feel her wrath. No bank was safe from it. The only … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The New Substitution Effect
Loosely speaking, when economists talk about the “substitution effect,” they are referring to the fact that as the price of one good or service rises relative to another, consumers will tend to favor the latter, cheaper option.
If, for example, people are genuinely indifferent to whether they eat chicken or beef for dinner, a rise in the price of steaks, for instance, may cause some to choose drumsticks instead. Of course, this is a simplistic example, because any number of other … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Fidelity Slashing Jobs
I’ve spent two stints working for Fidelity over the last 20 years, the last time was 1999-2002. The market had peaked and then fallen off dramatically, as technology stocks plummeted along with the NASDAQ. The markets bottomed in 2003 and went on a 5 year upswing. Fidelity is notorious for trimming staff during downturns, but by the time they end up trimming, things have usually started to move the other way. Fidelity’s cuts will become final in December of this year. Nothing is … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Thursday: Trading Actions In The S&P 500 Index
Prepare for tomorrow (Friday), because there are only two options:
#1 - S&P 500 (^GSPC) forms a double-bottom right off the 900 level, despite the terrible Employment Situation report and we head up to at least 20-day MA resistance. The VIX (^VIX) fails the 20-day MA resistance and falls back towards the 50-day MA.
-or-
#2 - We break 900 and we automatically head straight to 840-850 where the last support level is located before we make a new low. 900 appears to be a … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Thursday's Market Recap: Dow Falls 8.8% In The Two Days After Election
Wall Street reverts to similar patterns experienced in the middle of October as the U.S. economy contracts for the second day in a row on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) posted a decrease of 4.85%, dropping 443 point for the day, totaling post-election losses over 8.8%. The S&P (^GSPC) fell 5.03%, and shared its worst two consecutive day trading sessions since the 1987 crash with the Dow. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) decreased 4.43% during market hours on Thursday.
A … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - AT&T To Acquire WiFi Service Provider For $275 Million
AT&T (T), one of North America’s largest mobile carrier announced Thursday that it has agreed to acquire privately-held Wayport, Inc., a leading Wi-Fi broadband internet access provider based in Austin, Texas for approximately $275 million in cash.
The acquisition complements AT&T’s ability to deliver a complete end-to-end solution for businesses worldwide with Wayport’s experience in managing business applications and public access to the Internet over a single … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - October's Consumer Credit Securitization Market
In order to give you a better idea of the degree to which the credit markets are frozen, take a look at the passage below:
From the WSJ:
Banks and other finance companies making loans for autos, credit cards and college tuition are having virtually no success in selling those loans to other investors, a potent sign of just how tight credit markets remain.The market for selling such loans — by packaging, or securitizing, them into bonds — had just one $500 million deal for all … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать
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