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- Commodities, Credit Ding ETNs
Exchange traded notes (ETNs) have seen some chinks in their armor this year, in the wake of the credit crisis and a commodities slowdown.
ETNs, which are close cousins of exchange traded funds (ETFs), have been bleeding investor assets after being hit with a double-whammy of credit jitters and declining commodity prices, says Ian Salisbury for The Wall Street Journal.
In September, investors extracted about $460 million from the 90 ETNs tracked by fund researcher Morningstar, a chunk of … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - Snapshot Of The US Dollar Index, S&P 500 And Bond Yields
The USD continues to show lots of strength. Perhaps this is because the rest of the world is anticipating higher interest rates. The market might be anticipating the fact that investors in US bonds will demand higher US interest rates to compensate them for the increased risk, resulting from a weakened Fed balance sheet. The Fed’s balance sheet has deteriorated in quality as the US has created bailout programs to support our financial system. Could also be that the rest of the … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - EUR/USD Trying To Find A Bottom
EUR/USD broke down at the 1.39 level after failing to hold onto support there and has moved down to the 1.25 level and is trying to make some sort of bottom at this level. The Euro is definitely oversold, having moved all the way down from the 1.60 level. We could easily see it bounce back to the 1.40 level, which would mean rallies in both gold and oil. A possible pressure for the stock … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Volume Not Confirming Stock Rally
The chart below shows the NYSE Total Primary Volume. You can see that volume was accelerating on the downside and drying up on the upside. That’s usually a sign that the rally may not have legs. We’ll have to continue to watch. If the market makes a couple of strong moves, we may start to see buyers move in. My guess is that it’s not likely. We may not see the signs of a rally (higher volume) until after the first of the year…or perhaps, it’s a Santa Claus rally? … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Cottoning On To A New Reality
These pages have featured numerous reports highlighting the fact that Americans are not only cutting back on all types of purchases — mainly out of necessity, but increasingly out of choice – but they are also rethinking their whole attitude towards spending (and saving, for that matter).
Following an era of excessive splurging and aspirational shopping, frugality is suddenly back in fashion. People have figured out that there is a difference between needs and wants. And, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - ETFs As A Core To Portfolio Building
Studies show that the majority of active fund managers do not outperform the markets consistently, a fact that has more investors considering exchange traded funds (ETFs) and other index products instead.
One of the best ways to build a portfolio using ETFs is to begin with the core.
The core is the main part of the portfolio, and as the word implies, it should be solid. This part focuses on getting the rate of return necessary to reach your financial goals, while cutting risk as much as … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - There Are No Models For All Seasons
My recent post entitled What happens in the long run seems to have struck a nerve but was wrongly interpreted in some quarters (example here). All models are approximations of the real world. Good models work most of the time, but will break down when it hits a “boundary condition”. Good modelers continually ask: “What are the model’s assumptions? Under what circumstances will the model break down?”
In the case of my aforementioned post about long run equity returns, the world doesn’t … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Fundamentals Of Crude Oil Pricing: Part V
If you have not read parts one the earlier parts of this article, please visit Part One, Part Two, Part Three, and Part Four.
Fear and Uncertainty
Fear and uncertainty is the worst enemy of a financial market, and if you turn on the television it is easy to see why this is the case and how it can affect the world financial markets. Within the crude oil markets, fear and panic can cause a severe move in either direction. During this current credit crunch and liquidity crisis we have … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - How To Be "Selectively Bullish" - Even In The Face Of Financial Crisis
There clearly are countries such as the United States and much of the European Union that are going to collapse into recession, but this doesn’t necessarily have to evolve into a global recession. See why I’m selectively bullish. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Election Day: Current Projections
It’s certain that the US Election will have an effect on the equity markets and markets beyond, as the market anticipates the next president’s administration and shifts to reflect perceived policies he might create. Let’s turn to the current state-by-state polls to give us an overall electoral vote projection to see who that next president might be when polls close later this evening… provided we don’t go into recount mode.
I’m pulling non-partisan data from Real Clear … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Real Look At The 'Credit Market'
The credit markets remain unprecedentedly tight despite what you hear by the popular media on how the TED spreads, swap spreads, LIBOR/OIS etc etc are improving. These are just indicators and everyone has their favorite. Their movement from Armageddon levels absolutely does not mean that we will get a thaw in commercial or consumer lending anytime soon.
Instead of looking at sometimes artitrary indicators, just look at what’s going on in the real market. One will argue that 'just … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Stocks Gain Early On US Election Day
The moment of truth is here for Americans, as all over the nation blues and reds visit their polling stations to cast their ballot for the next 4 years of policy, control and decision making. While Democratica Senator Barack Obama continues to show a wide lead in National polls (almost 10 percentage points), Republican Senator John McCain is not giving up the fight just yet.
US stocks rallied this morning in anticipation of the election and what is represents as the closure of a long, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Likely EU Recession Paves The Way For Greater ECB Influence
By Jason Simpkins
The European Commission (EC) said yesterday (Monday) that the Eurozone economy has already slipped into a recession and strong and stable economic growth will not return until 2010. The European Central Bank (ECB), originally charged with the task of maintaining price stability, has now found itself with the added responsibility of encouraging growth and will likely cut interest rates later this week.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the 15-nation Eurozone probably … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Trading On An Obama Election
When political commentators refer to an “October surprise” as the unquantifiable risk in gaming the election cycle, few could have predicted what the exact nature of the surprise would have been, even fewer could have anticipated the sustained pressure in the markets and underlying severity of the economy would ultimately be the reason to throw the election decisively in Barack Obama’s favor.
The effects were so dramatic that both candidates running for office were essentially, relegated and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Trading: Euro Up Sharply Against Dollar Two Days Before ECB Rate Announcement
Euro
The euro moved sharply higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today (Tuesday) as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2850 level and was supported around the $1.2525 level. The common currency moved to intraweek highs two days before the European Central Bank is expected to reduce interest rates by 50bps for the second time in two months. Data released in the eurozone today EMU-15 producer prices decline for the second consecutive month, off 0.2% m/m and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - What Went Wrong With Credit Default Swaps?
Yesterday I explained the basics of a credit default swap. Now let’s explain how they sunk AIG (AIG).
The obvious risk of the CDS is that the original bond issuer (Barb in the simple explanation) cannot repay her debt. In AIG’s case, they did extensive computer modeling of this risk. They felt pretty good about the risk.
However, there were two additional risks not considered in the computer models. First, the CDS contract had provisions that could require the guarantor … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Bailout Blowback Worsening Abroad
Now that TARP has gone from a 2 1/2 page blank check for Paulson to an over 400-page blank check for Paulson and the banks and money grab like never before seen in history, blow back is getting extreme.
Even though my hope was that the Treasury would not actually go out and overpay for toxic mortgage assets on the tax payers dime because it would have been a disaster, that was what was sold to the American public as the primary solution. Apparently, only the law makers really thought … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Will Gold Rise As New President Faces Monumental Challenge Of Staggering Debt Levels And "Empire In Decline"?
Gold was up marginally yesterday despite further strength in the dollar and a further sharp fall in the oil price. Deflationary pressures continue to be prevalent and central banks internationally continue to aggressively cut interest rates in an effort to stimulate credit growth and inflate their way out of a possible Depression.
Barack Obama looks set to become the 44th President of the United States of America and there is a hope that he may regain America’s respect in the world … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Pre Market: Bull Trap?
The pre market futures (S&P E-Mini) have moved 40 points upwards with no prevailing catalyst (i.e. news) in the overnight hours.
What that has done is create a pattern that has now increased in probabilities. And that is an ascending wedge, which is a bearish pattern on its confirmation.
A confirmation would be a break below the lower wedge line, and should that break occur it would bring the S&P 500 mid 800’s back into play on the expected sell off.
The rise of ~40 points … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - All Eyes On US Presidential Election
Early this morning, all eyes seem to be focused on the US presidential election, which wraps up today. The $USD is down and the price of precious metals and oil are up a bit. Europe is rallying on hopes of BoE and ECB rate cuts on Thursday, and the DJIA futures are well up (+224) before the open.
But yesterday, there was no volume at all, and prices were flat-lined, across the board for US equities, gold and the goldminers.
The DJIA (-5.18 -0.06% to 9319.83), S&P 500 (-2.45 -0.25% … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Government Won't Extend $700 Billion Bailout Plan To U.S. "Big Three"
The U.S. Treasury Department has rejected General Motors Corp.’s (GM) request of $10 billion in assistance for its potential merger with Chrysler LLC after the Bush Administration decided it didn’t want to broaden its $700 billion financial rescue program to include industrial companies - or to play a role in a GM-Chrysler merger that could cost the U.S. economy tens of thousands of jobs, The New York Times reported yesterday (Monday).
Instead of direct financing assistance, it looks … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Will Japan Re-Emerge And China Decline?
The conversations about the United States economy always carries a feeling of impending doom. This despite an economy which today generates US 50,000 per capita GDP. United States is an unbelievably rich country with net worth of about US 60 trillion and annual GDP of US 14 trillion +.
Yet the conversation is always about lack of savings, deficits and on and on…but to view something completely different here is an excerpted section from the BEA: on the United States business with … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Profit With Berkshire And Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway has been receiving a lot of press lately, as CEO and billionaire investor Warren Buffet has been negotiating favorable terms for deals with companies including Constellation Energy, Goldman Sachs and General Electric. Many investors are wondering if they should follow Buffett’s lead and return to investing in equities, but the answer is not so simple. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Modeling Failure: AIG An Example
One failing of at least some of those who inhabit the academic world is a relentlessly popular and hopelessly arrogant delusion that human behavior can be reduced to formulas that others can or should rely on.
Economists and finance experts seem especially guilty in this respect, having dreamed up models that regularly fail to predict anything that might be of value to those who must make decisions about what the future holds.
One of the funniest example of analytical … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Shafted By Lehman? Get In Line
Once the number #4 U.S. investment bank, Lehman was once on top of the world, as a Wall Street titan with an impeccable reputation that had weathered every financial storm and every Great War of the last 150-plus years… until 2008.
That’s the year top Lehman brass worked every last angle to convince shareholders everything was okay… even as they spent millions on limos, ballgames, golfing, fitness, and luxury hotels.
The bank even tried to convince investors that it didn’t need … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Trading: Fundamental Recap
In the midst of the global economic crisis, the US Dollar and the Yen gained the most against the Euro since it’s inception in 1999 - as investors made a flight to safety. The dramatic turnaround comes of the heels of the Euro reaching it’s record high against the dollar of 1.6036 only this July.
The Yen strengthened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as global economic weakness led investors to unwind carry trades. The weakness in commodities, which constitute over half of their … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - American Vs Chinese Bankruptcy
Hat tip to my friends over at Calculated Risk for bringing the following LA Times article to my attention, “Some owners deserting factories in china.”
First, Tao Shoulong burned his company’s financial books. He then sold his private golf club memberships and disposed of his Mercedes S-600 sedan.And then he was gone.
…As more factories in China shut down, stories of bosses running away have become familiar, multiplying the damage of China’s worst manufacturing decline in at … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Presidential Election: How Will The Market React?
By Tuesday night we should have a good feel for who the next US president will be. There are a few scenarios that could play out and the stock market will likely react differently to each. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US House Prices May Take Several Years To Stabilize
The image below comes from the Economist’s daily chart feature, and looks at the YoY change in home prices from 1988 to present:
Graphic courtesy of The Economist
As you can see from the chart it took about eight years for housing prices to stabilize during the last downturn, and that even during a housing boom there can be periods of decline. Aside from laying to rest the idea that housing prices simply always increase in a straight line fashion, it also indicates that it will … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Monday: Daily Forex Market Commentary
Euro
The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2895 level and was supported around the $1.2720 level. The European Commission today reported the eurozone is in a technical recession and estimates economic growth will be around nil in 2009. EMU-15 policymakers called for coordinated action to stimulate economic growth. The German government is expected to unveil a €30 billion fiscal stimulus … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Bond ETFs Can Add Stability In Wild Times
The Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate last week to 1%, and while it affects stocks, it also can have an impact on bond exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Ron DeLegge for ETF Guide reports that lower rates also translate into lower yields for bond investors. Conversely, while bond investors have seen their yields fall, this has been offset by higher bond prices.
Lower interest rates should make borrowing money easier for businesses and consumers so that business activity will resume and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Circuit City Closes 155 Stores, Lays Off 17% Of Workforce
Let’s check in on one of my favorite whipping boys: Circuit City (CC). Needless to say, the news isn’t particularly good:
From the FT:
Circuit City, the troubled US consumer electronics chain, is taking urgent steps to keep its business afloat even as the holiday shopping season gets under way, saying it will close 155 stores and cutting 17 per cent of its workforce.The closures of around a fifth of its stores underline the bleak holiday outlook for many retailers this year, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Global Investing Roundups: Viacom, Crude Oil, Auto Companies
South Korea’s government announced plans for a 14 trillion won ($10.8 billion) economic stimulus aimed to create an extra 200,000 jobs, extend tax breaks for factory investments and increase infrastructure spending and development. Relief measures announced this year now total 33 trillion won, according to the finance ministry, Bloomberg reported.
Initial public offering plans for buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. have again been delayed, this time because its … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Monday's Market Recap: Stocks Lack Direction
The market struggled to pick a direction and run with it during Monday’s trading session, as all three major U.S. indices fluctuated between red and green numbers on the report of a weak manufacturing index. The Dow (^DJI) closed marginally lower on the day, moving only 0.06%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished the day in the red, falling 0.25%, while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) ended today’s session up 0.31%. Experts predicted the manufacturing index would slow by 2% from September to … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Credit Default Swaps: A Simple Explanation
The Wall Street Journal today has an interesting story about how AIG (AIG) got into hot water by writing a lot of credit default swaps. So I thought it was a good time for a simple explanation of what a CDS is.
We start with a simple loan: a lender passes money to a borrower, receiving an IOU in return.(In the real world, the IOU is a corporate bond, or possibly a collection of debts called a Collateralized Debt Obligation.)
Len is taking some risk, because Barb may not be able … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Utilities ETF Is Sending Signals
It’s been tough going for stock exchange traded funds (ETFs) lately.
Among other things, fear and greed tend to influence the markets more than anything and right now nobody knows if the “Big Money” is done selling into market strength, says Gary Gordon for ETF Expert. But we’re moving forward, and we’re aware that the volatility that’s been seen in recent weeks and months can’t continue forever.
Seeing that, Gordon set out to look at a variety of criteria that would make one ETF more … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Danger Of Green Taxis?
In an effort to cut its carbon footprint by 30 percent by 2030, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has pushed to transition New York City’s cab fleets from conventional vehicles to those that get no less than 30 miles per gallon.
However, a lawsuit filed in September charged that rules dictating this transition had been rushed without adequate concern for safety and cost. The suit also stated that the immediate change to clean taxis might be politically enticing and expedient, but is also … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Upcoming G-20 Meeting (Bretton Woods 2)
Let me start off by saying that the following article is both speculation on my part and addresses other speculation that I have seen circulating online. Bretton Woods 2 is a term being used by the media to address the calls by international leaders to revisit the Bretton Woods System. This has led to speculation, in my opinion incorrect speculation, that world leaders want to return to a Bretton Woods System in it's classical architecture.
The Problems we are Facing
The original … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Auto Sales Plummet, GM And Ford Meet Demand Destruction
According to a business survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), respondents were “considerably more negative” than they were in July when the last report was taken.
All told, a full 90% of the 102 members were more pessimistic about the economy than they were during the summer months.
According to the group, the survey’s measure of demand growth fell by the largest amount in its history, and for the first time since 2001, more respondents … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Deutsche Bank Misses Estimates
We are continuing our Hold on Deutsche Bank AG (DB). Deutsche Bank posted 3rd quarter earnings before nonrecurring items of 206 million, down 76% from the year-ago quarter, and below our estimate. We note that pretax earnings benefitted by 820 million from the reclassification of financial assets under amended accounting rules. In addition, DB further reduced risk exposures.
We are lowering our EPADS estimates to $0.10 from $5.00 for 2008 and to $10.50 from $11.90 for 2009, partly … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - So That's Why Gold Prices Are Up Today
Those who’ve followed me for some time know I’ve been a fan of gold for over 5 years now. So I folllow the news on gold, gold prices, gold mining, gold teeth, gold mining stocks, gold pine cones, gold demand, gold supply, and alchemy pretty closely. Those who’ve followed me for some time also know how ridiculous I think it is when the press attempts to explain away why a particular market or asset class rose or fell in a given day. MarketWatch has obliged both of these interests of mine … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Logitech Acquires Provider Of Internet Communications
The venture capitalists at The Roda Group, which are the principal venture capital backers and majority shareholders of privately held SightSpeed Inc., expressed today their satisfaction to see the award-winning provider of high-quality Internet video chat and video conferencing solutions co. get acquired by Switzerland-based Logitech International (LOGI) for nearly $30 million in cash.
The newly made acquisition will provide Logitech with video calling technology and a software and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Gold's Fall In Non-USD Currencies Was Shallow In October
Gold and silver have risen in Asian and early trading in Europe today (Monday). Last week saw gold fall some 1.4% while silver rose 4.9%. The performance of the precious metal mining shares may be an indication that we are at or near a low in this sell off as the Amex Gold Bug Index (^HUI) and PHLX Gold and Silver Index (^XAU) mining indices were up sharply last week - up 14.4% and 14.95% respectively. They tend to be a leading indicator of a trend reversal in the precious … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Why The US Mortgage Crisis Happened: The Timeline
The timeline of the crisis, starting in:
1933-1938: President Franklin D. Roosevelt initiated “New Deal” reform programs designed to affect the mortgage market and homeownership. Fannie Mae, the Federal National Mortgage Association, was established to facilitate liquidity among lending institutions.
Ending with:
Today 2008: The narrative is of another failed socialist experiment, this time a massive federal effort imperiling the whole U.S. banking industry.
Top recipients of … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Chesapeake Energy Still A Buy
Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development and production of onshore U.S. natural gas resources. The company has grown rapidly and now ranks as a leading U.S. natural gas producer.
At the end of the quarter, Chesapeake’s proved reserves stood at approximately 12.1 Tcfe, compared to 12.2 Tcfe at the end of the second quarter of 2008. During the first nine months of the year, the company replaced its 630 … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The VIX - SPX 30 Day Historical Volatility Spread And Performance
Two weeks ago in The VIX in the Context of Historical Volatility of the SPX, I used a chart to demonstrate how the VIX (^VIX) (which is essentially the implied volatility of the S&P 500) compares across various SPX historical volatility lookback time frames.
Why should anyone care about this? Well, it just might be worth noting that in the 19 year history of the VIX, four of the eight largest negative divergences between the VIX and the SPX 30 day historical volatility have … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - How Will Obama Or McCain Affect The US Dollar?
On the day before the US election (Monday), my head is spinning like a top when it comes to which presidential candidate will be better for the strength of the US dollar and the US economy. It doesn’t matter which candidate you prefer, the real issue is which candidate will the markets like in the long run. So who will be better suited for this turbulent economy? Barack Obama or John McCain?
Instead of giving you another politically charged post for which I have absolutely no desire to … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Can The Airline Index Rise As GDP Falls?
The airline sector has performed well over the last 2 months, in fact, from July to August the AMEX Airline Index (^XAL) increased from $13.69 to $26.15, up 91%. To be sure, the index did not escape the market turmoil in September and October, but it did manage to remain above the July lows. This relative out-performance could be attributed to falling jet fuel prices.
In 2008, jet fuel prices and the AMEX airline index have had a correlation of -0.62. This implies that roughly 62% of … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Monday: Global Market Roundup
Presidential Election Process
This eve of a historical presidential election, the markets were rather sluggish. Bouncing in and out of negative territory throughout the trading session, amidst light trading volume. The major U.S. indices ended the trading session mixed, with light gains or losses, across the board. The markets strongly dislike uncertainty and today we face a serious uncertain political future. Many traders anticipate a change in market sentiment after the presidential … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Tax-Loss Harvesting With ETFs Can Lessen The Pain
The market meltdown has created an opportunity at tax time for exchange traded fund (ETF) users.
John Spence for MarketWatch explains that when investors sell an ETF or mutual fund, any losses in excess of capital gains can be deducted from regular income up to $3,000 annually, with unused losses carried forward.
This tax management strategy can be valuable to investors. A tax swap involving the sale of one fund and the simultaneous purchase of another with similar objectives may create … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Liquidity Improves In Forex Markets
Overnight Asia/Europe
Japan closed for minor holiday
USD firm in two-way action
Yen crosses in focus, mostly for SterlingToday’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
11:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
All Day USD Total Vehicle SalesLooking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
All Day USD Presidential Election
10:45am USD FOMC Member … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Ride The Wave Of Recovery When It Arrives
There has been a great deal of chatter about market bottoms amid the recent sell-offs of record proportions. As investors and observers debate over the number or range that will define a bottom, everyone seems to agree and history has proven that a recovery will ensue and will reward long-term investors.
Investors, of course, will know the exact bottom and how long it took to get there after it was established, and nobody knows what kind of momentum to expect as stocks stage a turnaround. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - ETF Update: No Sectors To Buy
Investors and traders alike can improve their understanding of the market by looking at specific sectors. It is a great way of maintaining perspective, avoiding over-emphasis on the Dow or on individual stocks.
It can be a mistake to miss the forest while watching trees - or vice versa! A sector focus is a good solution.
Looking at charts of the various sector ETF’s is one approach. While this is not a substitute for fundamental analysis, it provides powerful visual evidence … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - WaMu Ex-Employee Speaks Out - How It Really Was
For all of you who want to know how the mortgage industry really was between 2003 and 2007, this is a good testimonial. Remember, this was not WaMu specific. This was just how it was.
This is why I maintain that given such lax standards were used along with such high leverage in the way the loan programs were structured and guidelines were written (i.e. 50% debt-to-income ratios for Prime loans) that nothing is how it seems. There are many more loans are 'at-risk’ than anyone can … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Global Stock Market Round-Up: Torrid October Ends With A Bang
A great deal has been said about stock markets’ performances during October, and specifically about the reversal of fortune during the last week of the month. (I covered this topic extensively in yesterday’s “Words from the Wise” post.)
For the sake of completeness I provide the performance tables for various stock markets below. The performances are given in both local currency and US dollar terms for different measurement periods ended October 31.
The numbers tell the full story … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Financial System And Its Identifying Solutions
The strength and stability of a financial system is strictly measured by its ability to function in a state of equilibrium under normal and distressed conditions. If this main criteria is met, then the system’s proficiency to combine its structural, institutional and well-designed policies that follow free market principles - as one component, will not only provide a system in synchronism, but will also allow for a coordinated functioning of it as a coherent entity that will consistently … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Unlike The Presidential Election, The Stock Market Can't Be Decided By Popular Opinions
The two biggest topics over the past couple of weeks has been who will win the US Presidential election and is the US stock market decline done and over with.
The first topic will be decided by voters this Tuesday, and based on popular opinion polls it seems somewhat obvious who will win. The second topic can’t be decided by popular opinion polls. If anything, 'popular opinion’ of the stock market has been a contrary indicator of the markets future direction.
We have reached a new … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Bank Of England Expected To Slash Interest Rates
The Bank of England, in an effort to help families and businesses to pull through the global economic downturn, is widely expected to follow Federal Reserves’ interest rate cut of 0.5% by cutting UK key rate, currently at 4.5%, by 0.5% or more at next Thursday’s monetary policy committee [MPC] meeting. If that happens, it would be UK’s first interest-rate cut of more than half bps since the early 1990s, when the country experienced a deep recession.
Citigroup (C), J.P. Morgan (JPM) … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Uncertainty Escalates As Tomorrow's US Presidential Election Looms
Come Wednesday morning - after the presidential election tomorrow (Tuesday) - the United States will have a new commander-in-chief. The president-elect will face some significant challenges: A weak economy (okay, a recession, given last week’s gross domestic product (GDP) report, which confirmed just how dire the country’s economic situation had become).
While this week’s data from the manufacturing and housing sectors will be eagerly anticipated, nothing compares to Friday’s reports on … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Boeing Union Workers Ratify Four-Year Pact, Ending Eight-Week Strike
The Boeing Co. (BA). said yesterday (Sunday) that its machinists in Washington, Oregon and Kansas ended a 58-day strike when the 27,000 unionized workers ratified a four-year contract.
The Boeing statement announcing the agreement did not provide details of the union vote. A simple majority of the striking members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union was all that was needed to ratify the deal.
The workers had walked off the job Sept. 6, halting … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать
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