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- Which Pin Will Burst The Treasury Bond Bubble?
As we’ve discussed previously, there is a bubble in the US Treasury bond market. And as we discussed in Ka-Poom Theory, bubbles always find black swan events - “pins” to pop them and cause a market panic. As John Mills, a historian of market panics, said, “Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.”
What will be the pin that pops the Treasury bubble, causing a panic that reveals its true … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Friday's Market Recap: Circuit City To Liquidate, Citigroup To Split
The markets traded in what looked like a perfect “V” shape on Friday, again erasing midday losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to finish up 0.84% to 8,281.22. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 were able to climb 1.16% and 0.76% respectively to closing levels of 1,529.33 and 850.12. After very poor earnings reports from Intel Corporation (INTC) and JPMorgan (JPM) the market was hit with more bad news on Friday but was able to shrug it off by the end of the … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Madoff NEVER Executed Trades In His Broker Dealer
The Madoff story continues to get more un-believable each day. The Boston Globe reported yesterday that FINRA (regulatory body) says that Madoff’s Advisory business may not have made ANY trades through his brokerage arm. They are suggesting that there is no record of ANY trades being made. This revelation tells me that the agency was somehow involved in a cover-up or some sort. If you’re doing any sort of regulation or investigation or audit of a company in the financial services … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - 6 Simple Strategies For Using ETFs
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are a great investment tool that offer diversity, low costs and tax-efficiency, in addition to offering a vast array of investing options.
ETFs can be optioned, shorted, hedged, bundled and more. But for the average investor, the best strategies are the simplest ones, which include filling asset allocation and replacing higher-fee mutual funds.
For the advanced investors, James Early of ETF Center for Motley Fool states that ETFs can be utilized in the … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - The Gas Prices Rollercoaster: Why Energy & Infrastructure Are Inextricably Combined
President-elect Obama takes office in less than a week’s time. While many will be watching closely to see how he handles the ongoing financial crisis, I’ll be equally interested to see how he handles a far more ominous one: our ongoing energy and infrastructure crisis.
Regular readers know I believe energy and infrastructure are inextricably combined. We need cheap energy to fuel sustained economic growth. And we need infrastructure in place to move and dispense the energy from its … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Why Wind ETFs Could Face Challenges
One of the first major wind farms about to be produced is facing political obstacles, despite President-elect Barack Obama’s stance on alternative energy, causing a gust of concern for related investments and exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Pros and Cons. Project Cape Wind is a Boston firm’s plan to build 130 windmills across 25 square miles of federal waters off Cape Cod. Stephen Power for The Wall Street Journal reports that supporters say it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions equal to … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - How To Read The Tea Leaves And Trade Like Bill Gross
Bondman Bill Gross of Pimco was popular with the press on Friday. In a Reuters interview, he proclaimed that the credit crisis may be over with respect to bank’s balance sheets. His hypothesis is based on the premise that the government will continue to throw money at the banks to stop the bleeding. He also mentioned that the worst is yet to come for the real economy and there is a potential for corporate bond defaults.
Moody’s would agree with Mr. Gross, on Thursday they released … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Pre Market: Barack Obama
The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Bank Of America Gets $138 Billion Bailout As Merrill Takeover Backfires
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) received its third capital injection from the U.S. government Friday, after the company posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.79 billion and absorbed even greater losses from its takeover of Merrill Lynch.
The government plans to transfer the $20 billion to Bank of America by the end of the day in exchange for preferred stock shares with an 8% dividend. That will bring the government’s total investment in BofA up to $45 billion dollars. The company received … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - FDIC Closes Down National Bank of Commerce
The National Bank of Commerce in Berkeley, Illinois is the first bank failure of 2009. The bank was closed Friday by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver.
From the FDIC:
To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Republic Bank of Chicago, Oak Brook, Illinois, to assume all of the deposits of National Bank of Commerce.
…As of January 7, 2009, National Commerce Bank … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Nice Job, The Tarp: $64 Billion In The Hole
The Wall St Journal is reporting that the first 3rd of the TARP is $64 billion in the hole already. The assets have declined in value; the loss of $64 billion is the difference between what the government paid for the assets or amounts lent to firm and the current market value of the transactions. It took Bernie Madoff years to lose $50 billion, but the US government did it in less than 6 … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Oil Prices, ETFs In The Future: Rock Bottom Or Sky High?
The recent volatility in crude oil has lead the commodity and its exchange traded funds (ETFs) to suffer from whiplash, but what does the future look like for black gold?
Supply and inventory numbers are staggering, oil producers and refiners are sitting on roughly 327 million barrels at tank farms around the country and private and national oil companies, refiners and trading companies are storing an additional 80 million barrels aboard several supertankers and smaller tankers. Many … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - US Economic Forecast: Fed To Raise Interest Rates In Late 2009 Or Early 2010
The worst part of this forecast update is history. The fourth quarter is still a forecast, because we won’t have official GDP data for another couple of weeks, but the monthly numbers we have are looking worse and worse. As I mentioned recently, exports, are diving. Then we got worse-than-expected news on December retail sales. We knew it would be bad, but not quite this bad.
Looking forward, we still have a lot of monetary stimulus in the pipeline. In my book, I described … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Promises Vs. Realities
Many Americans still believe that their country is about “truth, justice and the American Way.” But if they took a good look around, they would discover that circumstances are a far cry from what they were (or, at the least, were imagined to be). In fact, some would say that the world’s “sole superpower” is looking more and more like a banana republic every day.
In a post at EconLog, “The Pattern,” Arnold Kling highlights the kinds of failings that define a nation in … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - U.S. State Department's Newest Ally – Oil
Who knew that oil, once the pariah of the western world, would have such a positive role in the Obama’ Administration. Senator Clinton couldn’t have asked for a better ally. Oil is bringing America’s strongest enemies to their knees and reminding Europe why Russia isn’t such a great neighbor after all.
As prices have recently touched lows of $33.20 per barrel, inexpensive oil has caused severe problems for Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Chavez just … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - 7 Habits To Financial Success: Part 5
In this section I need to back up a little. Something we learned in the 7 Habits seminar was that private victory must come before public victory, which actually comes between parts 3 and 4, but for my purposes here fits between 4 and 5. The meaning behind private victory BEFORE public victory is that you cannot help others change if you cannot change yourself. So, in terms of finance, it doesn’t do us any good to try and teach someone about their financial matters unless we are willing … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - The Japanese Yen Wrecks Havoc On Some Of Your Favorite Companies
Over the years, American's have really gotten a "thirst" for Japanese products. Who hasn't come in contact with Toyota (TM), Sony (SNE), Nissan (NSANY), Mazda, Panasonic (PC), Fujitsu, Casio, Toshiba (TOSBF.PK) or Nintendo?
We use their cars, their electronics and don't forget….their Wii's. They've really seemed to get a feel for what we like…actually much better than many American companies. Americans have "voted" with their dollars as they've increasingly … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Is The Consumer Confident?
There are literally hundreds of economic reports issued every week relating to everything from new and used home sales to consumer and producer prices, employment numbers and trade surpluses, GDP, PMI, ADP - the list goes on. But what’s relevant?
Amid the numerical swamp are several items worth watching, particularly now as we pull ourselves out of a calamitous six months and begin to look forward to better days. And they all relate to confidence.
As one, old-time market commentator … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Light Volume Leads To An Oil Prise Rise
Light trading volume due to the upcoming holiday weekend led to a slight increase in oil prices as a lack of volatility pushed the front month crude to settle above $36. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Anheuser-Busch InBev Pours Into NYC
The worlds largest brewer Anheuser-Busch Inbev announced that they will have a new office for global operations in New York City in order to better manage and distribute the workload. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Markets Close In The Green In Asia
the final trading session of the week for the major Asian/Pacific markets saw yet another reversal of fortunes as previous session losses were lightened on substancial gains this session. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Stocks Lose Ground As Circuit City Liquidates
Stocks give back early session gains on news that the electronics retailer Circuit City will liquidate, eliminating 30,000 jobs. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Risk Aversion Eases On Bank Of America Assistance
US government assistance of the ailing Bank of America has led to optimism over riskier assets which has in turn led to a steep gain in the high yield euro this session. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Estee Lauder Cuts Future Profit & Sales Forecasts
Beauty giant Estee Lauder (EL) announced this morning that due to poor holiday sales and a deteriorating economy, it has cut its fiscal 2Q and fiscal year sales and profit forecasts. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Top Ten S&P 500 Stocks Close To 52 Week Highs
Though we’ve been in a bear market for over a year now, there are a few pockets of relative strength. Let’s look at the Top Ten S&P 500 stocks that are either making or are closest to their 52-week highs.
Apollo Group (APOL) is the only stock in the S&P 500 currently making a 52-week high. Another education related stock - ITT Educational (ESI) - also hit a fresh 52-week high (though it’s not in the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC)). This seems to make sense, as the … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Why Citi Turned Around On Mortgage "Cramdowns"
The latest data show one out of ten homeowners in the United States either are late paying their mortgages or in such serious arrears they risk foreclosure. Last week, congressional Dems breathed a sigh of relief when Citigroup (C) dropped its opposition to a change in the bankruptcy laws allowing distressed homeowners to do what owners of commercial property and second homes can already do when they can’t pay up — use bankruptcy proceedings as a means of working out better deals. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Forex Trading: EUR/USD Tests The 100-Hour Moving Average
That was quick. The EUR/USD is testing the 100 hour moving average at the 1.3228 level. Watching to see how the support holds up. Expect some profit taking … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - China Now The World's No. 3 Economy, Supplanting Germany
An upward revision in China’s growth figures allowed it to leapfrog Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy in 2007. Now the Red Dragon is snapping at Japan’s heels in the quest to become No. 2 in the world’s economic pecking order.
“I think it will take only three to four years for China to overtake Japan as the second-largest economy in the world,” Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu, told the Associated Press. Catching up with the United States could take decades, he … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Things To Know About Earnings Season And What It Means For ETFs
Now that earnings season is in full swing, how many people understand what the numbers mean and how they could impact exchange traded funds (ETFs)?
Earnings reports and guidance from public companies will have to incorporate a hodgepodge of maladies affecting the economy such as the deepening financial crisis, banking sector, automobile industry, and unemployment, writes Scott Rothbort for The Street.
In this earnings season, investors should be aware of five things in … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - GBP/USD Tests 200-Hour Moving Average
The GBP/USD is testing the 200 hour moving average at the 1.4859 level and is looking vulnerable to the downside. The GBP/JPY has already broken the 200 hour moving average at the 134.86 level and as a result, may help pressure the GBP/USD lower. A break should lead to lower levels with a move toward 1.4786 … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Apple And The Economy: Don't Forget The Economics
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) - Apple Inc. (AAPL) Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs, who said this month that he is being treated for a nutritional ailment, will take a medical leave of absence through the end of June. The shares fell 10 percent.
Although I wish the best for Steve Jobs, I care very little about this whole Apple story. The reason I bring it up is due wholly to CNBC. They’ve covered this story, along with the Madoff, for a large portion of the day.But the reason I wanted to … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - J.P. Morgan Manages A Profit
J.P. Morgan (JPM) reported a 76% decrease in net income of $702 million, or $0.07 a share, largely due to a loss in Investment Banking. Analysts were expecting earnings of $0.00 a share. This loss was derived from more markdowns on leveraged loans and mortgage trading positions, as well as weak trading results. Net revenue was negative $302 million, down $3.5 billion from last year. The firm did face higher credit costs because of deterioration in loan portfolios. Worsening loans … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - The Dow 30 And The Last Man Standing
Take about 20 minutes and review the charts of the component stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index (^DJI).
The financials (American Express (AXP), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM)) are in a free fall. Only JPM remains above its 2002 lows.
The industrials (Alcoa (AA), El Dupont de Nemours (DD)) are basing after the fourth quarter free fall and are trading at their 1994 lows.
The pharmaceuticals (Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - US Mortgage Rates Fall To Record Low Of 4.96%
Mortgage rates fell today to an historic record-low of 4.96% (see chart above), “the lowest mark since Freddie Mac started tracking the data in 1971.” That should help push the Housing Affordability Index (HAI) to a new estimated record high level of 163.1 in January (see chart below). The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has HAI data through October 2008, and I have estimated the HAI for November, December and January using the NAR methodology.
A HAI of 163.1 would mean … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Forex Trading: EUR/USD Tests Retracement Level
The EUR/USD corrected last night, moving through the 1.3242 key level and the 100 hour MA in the process (albeit reluctantly as it traded in a volatile fashion around the level for a few hours before moving higher.
The pair is currently testing the highs for the day at the 1.3317. This is just short of the 38.2% retacement level of the move down from the Jan 8th high of 1.3798 and the January 15th low of 1.3025. The 38.2% retracement level comes in at 1.3320. Just above that … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Quote Of The Day: Treating Incompetent As Victims
The current economic strategy is right out of “Atlas Shrugged”:
The more incompetent you are in business, the more handouts the politicians will bestow on you. That’s the justification for the $2 trillion of subsidies doled out already to keep afloat distressed insurance companies, banks, Wall Street investment houses, and auto companies — while standing next in line for their share of the booty are real-estate developers, the steel industry, chemical companies, airlines, ethanol … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - FXCM Acquires U.S. Business From ODL Securities
New York―January 16, 2009― FXCM has acquired the U.S. business of ODL Securities. The sale of these accounts will not impact the business of ODL Securities outside of the United States. ODL Securities is a well recognized brokerage firm based out of London, England. The sale of the U.S. business was part of a strategic decision by ODL to use its financial capital to fuel its growth in other parts of the world. The company has recently opened JV offices in Turkey and Australia, and has … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Plenty Of Event Risk In The Financial Markets
Every time the ECB meets, you can count on two things:
1) Jean-Claude Trichet will come close to dislocating his shoulder as he pats himself on the back, and
2) A cohort of Macro Man’s readers will spring to his defense.
Yesterday (Thursday) proved to be no exception. Macro Man is finding it difficult to escape the notion that Trichet is a spectacularly poor economist; what other explanation could there be for his apparent ongoing concern about wage pressures in Europe? And given … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Net Long-Term TIC Flow Shows Capital Flows Out Of US
The Net Long Term TIC FLow data for November showed a decline of 56.8 billion in November. This says that foreigners lessened their demand for US financial assets. To put things in perspective, this is the second time since 2000. The last time was in August of 2007 when the US Credit Crisis started in earnest. The decline was attributed to falling demand for US long term financial assets. The worry is foreigners will be reluctant to purchase US longer term securities as a result … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Only Tighter Regulation Will Stem This Crisis Of Confidence
I have a funny feeling that we’re not in Kansas, anymore.” Like Dorothy’s sublime observation of the surreal in “The Wizard of Oz,” our taking stock of where we are in the vortex of this economic tornado leads us to the same scary observation.
It also forces us to ask some tough questions - questions for which there may be no simple answers. Key among them:
Where are we?
How did we get here?
How do we get home?There are innumerable opinions as to how we got where we are - not … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Video: Bank Of America Requests More Aid
The Bank of America may need more government funding in order to finish acquiring the invesment bank Merrill Lynch. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - The Banking Doom
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) sank to an 18-year low today (Thursday) on speculation that the company might need government support to resurface from losses it absorbed during its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.
In December, Bank of America said it might abandon plans to acquire Merrill due to more of the company’s toxic assets coming to fruition in the fourth quarter. However, the government’s insistence on closing the deal to bring stability to financial markets bore fruit in the … [visit site to read more]Переслать - Video: *Pre Market: Intel And Citigroup
The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Bank Of America Befriends A Bear
Today, Bank of America (BAC) announced it could need another dose of government capital to shore up its Merrill Lynch acquisition. Additionally, JPMorgan (JPM) just announced it would write down profits by 76% on asset writedowns. Nortel Networks (NT) just threw in the towel as well.
But these developments come as no surprise to many conservative analysts.
In fact, a number of them believe that we’re seeing a bear-market rally instead of a real turnaround. If this is the case, … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - ETF Update: Rally Halted By Difficulties In Citigroup And Bank Of America
Algorithms and hope reside on trading desks and hedge funds driving stock indexes now. First, we had the faux rally induced by another breech of the 50-day moving average which failed twice. Today we fell below 8K briefly on the DJIA (^DJI) and that set-off some automatic buying and a short-covering rally. This rally however was stopped in its tracks by stories from Bloomberg and CNBC that Bank of America (BAC) needs more governement help and a lot of it. Rumors of nationalization of … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - DIA: Absolutely Fascinating Intraday Affairs
Today (Thursday) provided a plethora of material to discuss in terms of the “idealized intraday trading” set-ups, so without further delay, let’s look at these on the DIA (DIA) 5-min intraday chart:
The day started off normally (no gap), given that Apple’s (AAPL) announcement that Steve Jobs was taking a medical leave of absence brought expectations of a down-open. Ultimately we got that initial swing down, but surprisingly it didn’t come in the form of a gap (the futures were … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Apple Can Still Outperform The Competition In The Months To Come
In a memo that spread throughout the press like wildfire, Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple (AAPL) announced that he’d be stepping away from day to day duties to focus on his health issues. The iconic CEO cited further complications in this treatment to fix a protein irregularity along with the fact that persistent rumors about his health becoming a distraction to Apple’s current management team.
The media back-and-forth had gotten so bad and become such a distraction that it forced Apple and … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - ECB Cuts Key Rate To 2.0% As Eurozone Recession Worsens
The European Central Bank (ECB) today (Thursday) cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 2.0%, an acknowledgment that the Eurozone economy is rapidly deteriorating amid the global financial crisis.
“Looking further ahead, we continue to see global economic weakness,” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a statement. “The euro zone should over time reap the full benefits…of policy measure announced over recent weeks.”
The ECB, which prides itself on its … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Thursday's ETF Recap: Mixed Signals
Thursday’s morning action most likely washed out a lot of sellers, leaving room for a Friday rally. At the same time, the major indexes remain in their descending channels, and under declining 50 day moving averages. In other words, this is a great place to be sitting in cash and waiting for the next move.
- SPY (SPY) managed to close positive on a large increase in volume. A bounce up to the 50 day moving average seems likely, but there is plenty of overhead resistance.
- … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - California Is In A State Of Emergency
The California budget crisis is intensifying. The state barely has funds to survive another month. They are talking about delaying tax refunds to residents, student grants, and payments to vendors. This is going to get real ugly.
If you take a few minutes to listen to Arnold’s state of the Union Adress (CA), it’s truly amazing. I never thought I’d hear anything like this in my lifetime.
Official transcript of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2009 State of the State … [visit site to read more]Переслать - What Happens In Mexico, Stays In Mexico?
What is that giant sucking sound I hear? It is a nice little news tidbit on Mexico and its potential threat to the United States. Huh? Isn’t Mexico our friendly neighbor to the south that provides the US with goods and services both legal and illicit?
In November, the Joint Force Command (JFC) released the Joint Operating Environment (JOE) report which details the threats that the US faces from various nations. By its own admission this report is highly speculative and meant to be a … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Non-US Banks: Industry Outlook
As in the US, non-US bank stocks continue on a downward trend this year due to the financial problems that began in the US subprime mortgage market and spread globally to engulf many major financial institutions in most countries. The median year-to-date stock price decline for non-US bank in the Zacks universe is 2.4%, compared to a loss of 3.5% for the S&P 500. This includes median price declines for non-US banks in the Zacks universe of 6.1% in Europe, 3.9% in Asia, and 0.4% in … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - The Obama Effect On Alternative Energy ETFs
Most industries have continued to struggle with the economic downturn, tight credit markets and declining sales numbers, but the alternative energy industry and its exchange traded funds (ETFs) have actually seen a boom in investment and sales numbers.
The Obama Effect. One reason for this influx of investors into the industry is President-elect Barack Obama’s paramount emphasis on alternative energy and energy efficiency. This is attracting many venture capitalist firms, angel … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Bears' Next Target: Bubble In US Treasuries
Yes. Here’s why:
1. The bailout money is not being lent to consumers, but is being used to buy Treasury bonds.
2. We’ve been Treasury bond prices rise strongly (i.e. falling yield rates), which reflects increased demand for Treasuries. At the same time, though, the fundamentals of the US dollar (the underlying asset the Treasury bond is a derivative of) are deteriorating: the country is carrying more debt while taxes are declining and government spending is increasing.
3. Consistent … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - A Radioactive US Dollar
There is a rather interesting scientific experiment going on right now in the United States. The experiment involves the effect that intensive radiation has on the brains of rats. Who is conducting this experiment? Why Wall Street, of course!
With all of the highly leveraged, stupid bets blowing up in Wall Street’s face, it has been the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off right in the middle of Wall Street. Most people would use common sense and get as far away as possible from the … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - Outgoing Wal-Mart CEO's Words
Earlier this week, Wal-Mart’s (WMT) outgoing CEO Lee Scott spoke at the National Retail Federation’s Annual Convention. His speech can be seen here. This was the last time Scott will speak in public as the leader of the company.
After his prepared remarks, Scott sat down for a Question & Answer session with NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. Mr. Scott was asked about various topics ranging from government spending, retail trends, and the economy. What Scott had to say about the … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - 3 Ways To Play Bonds And ETFs
With such an uncertain market, many investors have turned to bonds and are wondering how to play the bond market and bond exchnage traded funds (ETFs).
The problem that is facing the bond industry is that interest rates are ridicously low on long-term treasuries and the risk with higher yielding bond categories is high.
Nilus Mattive of Money & Markets states the following ways to play the market:
Buy bonds with various maturities and as they mature, reinvest into other … [visit site to read more]
Переслать - The Seven Habits To Financial Success - Part Four
If you’re just joining us in this series, I attended Franklin Covey’s 7 Habits of Highly Effective People and I’m in the process of translating that as it applies to finances. If you’ve missed any of the previous posts, I encourage you to go back and read them. These habits are easy enough to work on individually, but together they can have an incredible impact over your financial success.
Habit # 4 - Think Win-Win or The Habit of Mutual Benefit
You don’t have to blow out the other … [visit site to read more]Переслать - Chart Of The Day: US Jobless Rate In Different Decades
From University of Virginia economics professor Lee Coppock’s blog Long Run Equilibrium.
We still have a long way to go before the jobless rate equals the levels of the early 1980s. So before we make comparisons to the 1930s and declare that we are in Great Depression II, how about making first making comparisons to the … [visit site to read more]Переслать - Deflation In The US?
This morning’s (Thursday) US Producer Price Index (PPI) release is additional evidence that we are on the cusp of deflation. This is a remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago. In December the Producer Price index fell by 1.9%, following a 2.2% decline in November. It was the fifth straight month of declines.
On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are now down 0.9%, a dramatic decline from its up 9.9% peak in July. Things are not quite so dramatic once you strip out food … [visit site to read more]
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