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- No Government Target For The British Pound
“Sunny Jim” Callaghan must be spinning in his armchair. After a long struggle with Harold Wilson, who refused to even discuss the matter, Callaghan was forced to devalue the pound in November 1967. The devaluation of the pound ended his time as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He went on to make matters worse elsewhere, especially in Northern Ireland and with the Trades Union reforms that never materialised. And he had to get the IMF to bail out the country too. Forced to hold an election after … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - My Favorite Quotes For The New Year
In honor of the new calendar year. Here are a few of my favorite quotes about money, life and happiness, with an emphasis on dreams. Wishing you a sweet & profitable year! Happy 2009!!!
“If you take responsibility for yourself, you will develop a hunger to accomplish your dreams.” Les Brown
“Stop waiting until you make enough money to do something you’d really love.”– Julia Cameron: The Artist’s Way. p.7
“All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them.” Walt … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - 3 Simple Rules For Avoiding Financial Fraud
Three weeks ago, I promised you a 30% return on my “Keynesian investment strategy” of buying a deeply discounted fund, the John Hancock Preferred Income Fund (HPI).
Guess what? It’s already achieved the goal of 30% return (including a nice dividend).
Today, I’ll show you how to keep your hard-earned profits from being stolen by some unscrupulous broker or money manager through financial fraud.
Sadly, quite a few wealthy individuals lost their entire fortune and are now penniless … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - US Stock Market: Friday's Bullish Action
The rally today (Friday) was nice. It’s even better if you add in the past two days. There’s a lot of reason to be bullish just by looking at a chart. After spending nearly a month inside a trading range, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) finally broke out from 920 resistance and it did so without a problem, even on a low volume day. I would give it a few days for the market to restore “normal” volume levels.
Next week, I would wait for a pullback before getting serious on the longs. Why? … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - DIA: The Most Perfect Trend Day Ever
Ok, maybe not “ever,” but today’s (Friday) intraday DIA price action comes as close to an “idealized” or perfect trend day example as you can find. Without further delay, let’s see the stable price action that made up the day.
DIA 5-min January 2, 2009:
The day began as many classic trend days do - with an overnight gap that (technically) did not fill. An un-filled gap is your first clue that a trend day may be upon us.
An initial retracement occurred to the 50 EMA which was … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Friday's Market Recap: Investors Start New Year With Some Optimism
Trading volume was low again on the first trading session of 2009 sending markets into the green. The Dow Jones Industrial average (^DJI) ended 258 points higher and closed at 9,034 points. The Nasdaq composite index (^IXIC) was up 55 points and closed at 1,632 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 28 points and finished at 931 points. The three major indexes have gone up over 6% for the week. The Russell 2000 index was 6 points higher and closed at 505 points. Overseas, Britain’s … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - 6 Reasons Fighting On Gaza Strip May Boost Israeli ETFs
Israel continued its bombing of the Gaza strip and it looks like it may not be as threatening to its economy as previous hostile situations and may actually benefit their economy and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track the market.
How?For starters, an increase in government spending will most likely boost the economy which has been engulfed by the global recession. The country plans on beefing up spending on small and medium-size businesses and pour money into bridges and … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Long Term Structure Of The Euro Index
To follow up on a reader’s request to analyze the Euro Index, I present the monthly and weekly 'fly-by analysis’ of the Euro Index to see where we’ve come and where we might be headed.
Euro Index Monthly:
The general relationship of the Euro Index to that of the US Dollar Index is inverse - in that when the US Dollar moves up, the Euro moves down which derives more from relative strength among other factors. What’s good for the Dollar is generally bad for the Euro, though that … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Gloomy Earnings Prospects Hold Key To Stock Buying
The consensus estimate of earnings for the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (^GSPC) for 2009 is currently about $83. The index itself is currently standing at about 904. That means the market is trading on only 10.6 times next year’s forecast earnings, far below the historical average multiple.
So it is a screaming buy, right?
Not so fast.
“Consensus” estimates of earnings lag reality substantially. Because they include an average of all earnings forecasts over a considerable … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Deflation Watch Part II
Here’s what Nouriel Rubini says about deflation:
Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero, so monetary policy becomes ineffective. Falling prices mean that the real cost of capital is high and the real value of nominal debts rise, leading to further declines in consumption and investment - and thus setting in motion a vicious circle in which incomes and jobs are squeezed further, aggravating the fall in demand and prices.
The … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - Capitalists On The Way Up; Socialists On Way Down
Many are finding it hard to make merry in the aftermath of this year’s financial crisis. Collateral damage from the crisis is extensive-unemployment is rising in the US, exporters are hurting in emerging markets, global stock markets are depressed, and each day seemingly brings new cries for government help from struggling industries.
Some see these effects as proof of capitalism’s failure. After all, this year saw the crumbling of a financial nucleus under its own weight, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The Ghost Of Crude Oil Futures
Welcome is the psychological reset of the scorecard to our portfolios. Most investors are eager to pretend that the new year will begin with a clean slate, with fresh money and no losses glaring at them from half-opened portfolio statements.
The daunting truth is that, for the most part, investors large and small have experienced devastating losses this past year. Remarkably, this actually bodes well for new investors (as well as the market in general) because although little has actually … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Your IRA: Resolutions For Wealth & Happiness In 2009
We look to the New Year and, hopefully, our resolutions for wealth and happiness in 2009. For many, it could be as simple as saving more and contributing to an IRA account. It’s one of the easiest ways to secure a comfortable future.
Unless you’ve just arrived from another country, most of you reading this know IRA stands for an Individual Retirement Account. It’s probably a safe bet that many of you have them and make regular contributions to one, or to a similar workplace retirement … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Video: Oil Prices Start The New Year Above $46
Despite being the one year anniversary of crude prices hitting $100 for the first time ever, this session ushered in a new year and new understanding to the energy markets as crude settled just above $46 today. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - Video: India Slashes Its Benchmark Rates Again
For the second time in less than one month, India’s government announced today that it will once again lower key interest rates in hopes of boosting both the economy as well as consumer spending. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Video: Hang Seng Surges To Start 2009
The final day of the trading week and first trading session of the new year within the major Asian/Pacific markets saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng post huge gains this past trading session. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Video: Markets RIng In New Year With A Rally
Markets rally half way through the trading session with shares of General Motors leading the gains. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Video: Dollar Rises On Holiday-thinned Trading
The US dollar managed to post gains in trading this session against both the euro and yen as poor euro-zone economic data and light trading value lifted the greenback. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - Forex Trading: USD/JPY Testing Trendline Resistance Again
The trendline resistance on the USD/JPY is being tested at the 91.28 level again. A break should solicit additional … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Now And The Great Depression: Similarities And Differences
As we enter 2009, many if not most agree that the US economy is struggling, and that these struggles will continue. An increasing number have been making comparisons to the Great Depression. With that in mind, let’s compare and contrast the situations. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Weekly Chart Of VIX Gives Bullish Clues For Stock Market
On Wednesday the VIX (^VIX) (Volatility Index) finally broke below 40. While the indicator remains at a historically high level, technical analysis of its weekly chart (see below) shows a potential setup for future bullish action in stocks.
What would really help the intermediate outlook for equities would be a break below the 30-35 support levels. If this were to occur, then the probability of a 20-handle increases as there is not much support until @ 27 and @ 22 price … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - US Mortgage Rates Fall To Record Low Level
30-year fixed rate mortgages closed out the year at 5.14% (data here, see graph above), the lowest rate on record (data back to 1964 here). Falling mortgage rates and falling home prices will be important factors in the real estate market’s recovery in … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Jim Rogers: $700 Billion Banking Bailout Is 'Horrible Economics'
Ask investing icon Jim Rogers about the $700 billion U.S. banking bailout, and he’ll tell you that it’s nothing but “horrible economics.”
And with good reason: Most of the major U.S. banks are already bankrupt.
“Without giving specific names, most of the significant American banks, the larger banks, are bankrupt, totally bankrupt,” Rogers said in a recent teleconference at the Reuters Investment Outlook 2009 Summit. “What is outrageous economically and is outrageous morally is that … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Forex Trading: USD/CHF Continues To Find Sellers Against 200-Hour Moving Average
The USD/CHF remains contained by the 200 hour MA (green line) and the 50% correction level of the move down from the high of 1.1131 and the low of 1.0368 (level comes in at 1.0750.
The last move to the highs found sellers at the 1.0737. I would guess that a move above the 1.0750 level would solicit stop buying. On the downside the 1.0613 (100 hour moving average) remains the key support level … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Video: Visteon Corporation To Cut Worker Hours & Pay
Automotive supplier the Visteon Coporation (VC) announced this morning that due to tight credit and weak sales, the company will have to shorten the work week for employees as well as cut their pay. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Will Retail ETFs Pick Up The Pace?
The holiday shopping season is drawing to a close, and the retailers and related exchange traded funds (ETFs) didn’t get the turnout they had hoped for.
Despite the deep discounts and early clearance sales, retailers were unable to lure consumers and spur a spending rally as they has anticipated. Many knew it would be a weaker then usual holiday season, however, the hopes of a rebound or breaking even is now out of the question for some businesses.
Andrea Chang and Mark Medina for … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Best-Performing ETFs For 2008
2008 was the worst year for the stock market since 1931, and the worst year ever in the fifteen-year history of exchange traded funds (ETFs).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended 2008 with a two-day winning streak, but was still down for the year by 33.8%. It was the Dow’s worst annual performance since the Great Depression was in full force. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) this year lost 38.5%, while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell 40.5%.
This year, 19 of the top 20 ETFs for 2008 were … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - In Gold We Trust
In the closing weeks of 2008, Americans have once again been shocked by a massive Wall Street scandal. Former Nasdaq chairman, Bernie Madoff was arrested for masterminding a $50 billion fraud. The Bernie Mad(e)off with investors’ money Ponzi scheme is just the latest Wall Street scandal to see the light of day.
I firmly believe that the Madoff $50 billion Ponzi scheme will be just the first of many Wall Street frauds that will be revealed in 2009. In the past, Americans trusted their … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Canadian Solar Building Heat
Canadian Solar, Inc. (CSIQ) was incorporated by Dr. Shawn Qu in Canada in 2001. In the People’s Republic of China, the company has three manufacturing facilities located at Suzhou, Changshu and Luoyang. CSIQ came out with its maiden public offering in November 2006.
The company engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of solar module products (ranging from 5 W to 300 W and using both polycrystalline and monocrystalline solar cells) that convert sunlight into … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Good-Bye 2008: Wish We Never Knew Ya!
Much like an embarrassing family member or friend, or humiliating past pictures taken of you in a ridiculous outfit or pose, we’d all like to pretend that 2008 never happened and it was just a figment of our imagination.
Personally, we’ve had friends lose their jobs, watch their business nosedive, pull their hair at sharply reduced retirement incomes and/or be abandoned by their wives. And everyone’s investment portfolio got blasted to one degree or another.
It didn’t matter what you … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Global Investing Roundups: UBS, US Mortgage Rates, India Rupee
China Lifts Inflation Controls; Awful Year for India Rupee; 30-year Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low; First Recorded Decline in Online Holiday Shopping; UBS Offloads Bank of China Stake
With inflation easing, China has lifted temporary inflation controls on key commodities such as liquefied petroleum gas, power-station coal, grains and cooking oil. Ten months ago, China was facing inflation at a 12-year high, Bloomberg reported. Now it’s slowed to the weakest pace in nearly two … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Forex Trading: GBP/USD Tests 100-Hour Moving Average And Backs Off
The GBP/USD rallied off of the weaker than expected ISM data. The price action brought the pair up to the 100 hour moving average at the 1.4568 level (high was 1.4560) but backed off from there. The action in the GBP/USD has been very volatile but the price remains near the lows. However, the support at the 1.4377-83 level seems to be strong.
The bias is down as the price remains below the 100 and 200 hour moving average. A break of the 1.4377 level is needed to solicit … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - US Job Markets Remain Challenging
The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell sharply in the week ending Dec. 27, according to a report released Wednesday by the Labor Department.
The advance figure for initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits came in at 492,000, a decrease of 94,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 586,000. It is the first time claims were below 500,000 since the week ended Nov. 1, when the government reported 481,000 initial claims. Still, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Contain And Package Your Returns
Don’t be frightened by the title; I have no “curious” new product that gives you synthetic exposure to markets flushed with loose capital fueled by ravenous speculators that yields stress, write downs, and a murky promise of a return. Commodities have turned out to be the bust of the year. Trending toward the stratosphere of never-ending economic appetite only six months ago- crude, copper, corn, and all the rest have plummeted towards historical averages as whimpering hedge funds tuck … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Green Hunter Energy Gets Green Light To Sell Biodiesel
Green Hunter Energy (GRH) has been approved by the EPA to sell their biodiesel to the on-road market. Currently the main markets for their biodiesel has been the marine market and for export.
Green Hunter’s biodiesel refinery at the Houston ship channel has the capacity to produce 105 million gallons per year of fuel. The refinery resumed production on November 25 after being shut down due to damage from Hurricane Ike. Before the shutdown the plant had reached 65% of capacity … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - When To Sell My Dividend Stocks?
nvestors always look for the perfect formula that would enable them to purchase the best stocks at bargain prices, which would provide large capital gains over time and an increasing stream of dividend gains. One could line up one or several indicators in order to reach a buy decision. Selling a stock however, is what could ultimately determine whether you succeed or fail in the long run.
As a buy and hold dividend investor, I try to pick stocks that trade at reasonable levels, and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - Could The GBP Be The Canary In The Mine?
Further to my last post about the inevitability of inflation in the U.S. because of the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, CynicusEconomicus points out that the UK suffers from a similar problem:
[I]n the UK (and the same could be said of the US), there had been no real growth in what I considered to be wealth creating assets over the last ten years which could explain GDP growth; manufacturing, commodity extraction, export of services, and tourism (no net growth).Instead I pointed … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Forex Trading: USD/JPY Testing Trendline Resistance
The USD/JPY is testing the trendline resistance at 91.35 level on the daily chart a break should lead to continued buying in the pair.
On the shorter term chart, the pair moved above the 100 hour moving average on Friday (at the 90.42 level) and was able to extend above the consolidative range top at the 90.98 level. This give the pair a bullish … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Video: TGI 2009
Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at Standard an Poor’s, discusses the tumultuous year of 2008 and looks toward 2009. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Yet Another Strike Against The U.S. Dollar
During 2008, one of the few financial instruments in the world that went up was the U.S. dollar. It became a great defensive play as investors ran back to the “world’s reserve currency”. Also, investors began to flee the emerging markets and repatriated their funds back into the U.S. which caused them to sell out of the foreign currencies and repurchase dollars.
Also, as stocks and commodities plummeted throughout the latter part of 2008, investors looked for any “beaten down” safe … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - The Obama Infrastructure Play
President-elect Barack Obama has been in the news over the past few weeks speaking about “the largest investment in infrastructure since the creation of the interstate highway system under Dwight D. Eisenhower,” but we’ll have to wait and see if democrats in the legislative branch actually ask “how high” when Obama says “jump.” If all goes according to plan, Obama is looking to launch a 2-year, $850 billion stimulus package with a large proportion going towards an extreme makeover of our … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Consumer Spending Decline Not Due To Income Drop
Income and spending are both down, and it seems obvious that the one would lead to the other. But which one leads to the other? It’s not so simple. Let’s look at the data. (I only show the latest months, after the effect of the last stimulus plan had worked through the disposable income data.)
The drop in consumer spending is wildly disproportionate to the drop in disposable income. Keep in mind that when people lose jobs, their spending typically falls by a smaller … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Unemployment Rate From 2005-2008 Higher Than 1926-1929
Many Wall Street analysts and (mostly right-wing) commentators (see “5 Reasons Why Today is Not Great Depression II” for one example) say we are not headed for a repeat of what took place 80 years ago because the unemployment rate is “only” 6.7 percent, around a quarter of what it was during the Great Depression.
But what they conveniently forget to mention is that national jobless totals only began to spike following the crash year of 1929 and were actually fairly steady up until … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Bank Of America, Wells Fargo End Year By Closing Major Buyout Deals
Two major U.S. banking deals were completed yesterday (Thursday), enabling the suitors to finalize the deals before 2008 came to a close.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) completed its purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER), creating the largest U.S. bank - as well as the biggest challenge yet for longtime BofA Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis.
And Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) completed its $12.7 billion purchase of Wachovia Corp. (WB) - outbidding Citigroup Inc. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - A Weekly Chart Look At The 1987 Market Crash
As a follow-up to the previous post on the 1987 Market Crash (on the daily chart), the following post creates an overview of the crash starting with 1984 and moving up to the crash, while looking at the perspective with an Elliott Wave impulse count. Let’s see it.
S&P 500 (^GSPC) Weekly Chart with Elliott Waves:
The market actually bottomed in 1982, but I’m showing a fractal of the larger move (remember Elliott Wave is comprised of many structural fractal waves that form … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - A Celebratory Close To A Volatile Year For Economy, ETFs
For many cultures around the world, New Year’s Eve is the kick off, the celebration, and New Year’s Day is a fresh start, something many exchange traded fund (ETF) investors could use. As you ponder the world and our current financial situation, it is interesting to note how people are celebrating and what New Year’s means to them.
Take Peru, for example, which celebrates the New Year with a glass of champagne containing a piece of gold jewelry. A ritual gold ring is ideal, and much … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - No Bailout Necessary, Just Reduce Punitive Tariffs To Save And Create More U.S. Jobs
Tariffs are usually used to protect domestic industries from more efficient foreign competitors. But domestic firms also buy inputs, raw materials, supplies, parts and inventory FROM foreign producers, and in fact more than half of U.S. imports are industrial supplies and parts, and NOT finished consumer goods. In that case, tariffs are a tax on the inputs of domestic businesses and can put them at a significant competitive disadvantage.
Case in point: There is a punitive tariff of up … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The First Signs Of An Economic Thaw?
On November 5, 2008 I posted “When Will the Recession End?”. Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) I suggested that the recession may have started around December 2007. I then added the longest recession period (14 months) and concluded that Q1 2009 was prime time for a recovery. Subsequently, the NBER confirmed that the recession did indeed begin in December 2007 -so far so good for my ability to look backwards! However, if the recession is to end in the next three months … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Morgan Stanley Reduces Risk But Still Has A Long Road Ahead
On December 17, 2008 Morgan Stanley (MS) posted another loss for their 4th quarter earnings. The firm has been hit hard by losses from assets across the spectrum, and investors have destroyed the stock as it converts to a bank holding company. For the 4th quarter, Morgan Stanley reported a net loss of $2.3 billion, or $2.34 a share, compared with last year’s loss of $3.59 billion, or $3.61 a share. Although this loss is narrower than the previous year, the losses still trump the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - TARP Is Bad For Dividend Investors
TARP allows the United States Department of the Treasury to purchase nonliquid, difficult to value assets from banks and other financial institutions. TARP also allow the Treasury to purchase whole loans and make direct equity investments in banks themselves. The targeted assets are securities backed by mortgages, sometimes described by the government, media, and others as “troubled” or “toxic” assets.
As of November 12, 2008, $290 billion of the first $350 billion allotment funding … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - What Does The Future Hold For Oil ETFs?
The burst of a speculative bubble in crude oil has lead to diverse opinions on the commodity and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track it.
A 73% decline in value from peak prices of $147 per barrel has enabled both the bears and bulls to come out in full force.
The bears are advocating that the collapse of oil could be as shocking and long-lasting as its run-up seen from 2004 to 2008, sending crude prices as low as $10 per barrel.
As for the bulls, they argue more sustainable … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - US Bank Losses: Not As Bad As We Feared
The FDIC now has the scoop on the banking industry’s third quarter results. They aren’t as bad as I had feared. Not that they are good, but it’s not catastrophic. Some key points:
The industry earned money third quarter, though a huge amount less than in the third quarter of 2008. Still, 76 percent of all banks were profitable.
Net interest margin increased, providing a little cushion against the bad news.
Capital ratios increased at about half the banks.
The … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Review Of The Approved Puget Energy Merger
The Puget Energy (PSD) merger has finally been approved on December 30, 2008. After more than 1 year since I first got wind of this deal, the entire deal is expected to close in 2 weeks for $30 cash. Surprisingly, PSD is still trading at a discount to its final closing price. It is currently at $27.50. This still leaves room for a 9% gain with all uncertainty eliminated.
In my last post on PSD, let’s take a step back and review what happened, how I went about doing things, what went right … [visit site to read more]
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