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- Daily Forex Commentary: British Pound Under Pressure From Imminent Rate Cut
Euro
The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today (Monday) as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2580 level and was capped around $1.2710 level. The common currency lost ground on declining risk appetite that stemmed from bad economic data worldwide. Eurozone data saw EMU-15 manufacturing activity fall to its lowest level ever since the inception of the euro, igniting speculation the European Central Bank may cut rates by at least 75bps on … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - US In Official Recession: Why Did It Take So Long To Determine That?
Welcome back from your long holiday weekend. We’re in recession.
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit foundation, announced that the last economic expansion peaked in December 2007. Read the full report.
I’ve been asked frequently why it takes so long for an official determination. Here’s the story. The government does not define recessions. Back in the 1920s, the NBER began a research program into our economic history, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The US In A Recession. Now What?
Exchange traded fund (ETF) and other investors won’t like this: the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed today that the United States entered a recession one year ago.
Most Americans have already believed this about the economy, but it’s still unwelcome news. Declaring a recession can take awhile because the final readings on a variety of economic measures need to be taken, reports Chris Isidore for CNN Money.
What should investors do now? It’s never too late to implement an … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Trading: USD/CHF Breaks Below 200-Hour Moving Average
The USD/CHF moved below the 200 hour moving average at the 1.2071 level and approached the 100 hour moving average at the 1.2013 - reaching a low of 1.2020. The trendline from the low comes in at the 1.2035. A break below the 1.2013 level should lead to further selling in the … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - VIX Drops 30% In Five Days For Eighth Time In 19 Years
A reader asked about the historical significance of the CBOE Volatility Index VIX (^VIX) dropping 30.9% in the last five trading sessions. This has only happened six times since the beginning of the VIX data history in 1990. If we lower the bar to a 30% drop in five days, we pick up a total 8 instances; and if we move the threshold down to a 25% drop in five days, the number increases to 32 occasions, including quite a few data points that fall on consecutive days.
If you do this type … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Markets: A Look Into The Dollar, Part III
Welcome to Part III of a four part series discussing the current state of the foreign exchange markets and the future problems and issues that will surround it. Part I of this series explained the general relationship between commodities, the Euro, and the Dollar. Part II of this series discussed the reasons why the dollar has rebounded recently. This article will discuss the European and U.S. central bank’s rate cuts, their fiscal stimulus plans, and the LIBOR to fed funds rate and the affects … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - What The Mumbai Attacks Mean For The Markets
As has been widely reported by the international media, there were recently attacks by militants in Mumbai. Here are some thoughts on how this will affect financial markets:
1. Gold. The proliferation of militant networks around the world has coincided with the emergence of a bull market in gold (GLD). The more unexpected attacks by organizations that are not nation-states we see, the more we can see a rise in gold — and likely silver as well.
2. Defense ETFs. US President-elect Barack … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Even As Gasoline Prices Fall Analysts Predict Peak Oil
Two well respected oil analysts, Charles Maxwell and Peter Wells, provide recent updates to their peak oil thoughts. Wells in particular is interesting because he employs a bottom-up analysis similar to the Megaprojects works that is done on Wikopedia and by Chris Skrebowski. Wells is also a consultant to Toyota (TM), an impressive credential.
Maxwell repeated his prediction of $300 oil in 2015. Wells thinks non-OPEC production has already peaked, that global production may peak … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Trading: USD/CAD Has A Wild Up And Down Day
The USD/CAD has had a wild up and down time of it since last Friday. The pair has been moving up and down, using the 100 hour moving average (Blue Line) and the 200 hour moving average (Green Line) as the lower and higher boundaries.
There was one instance in the last hour when the pair triggered stops to the upside. However, within 5 minutes the weak handed longs, were selling their positions and forcing the pair back down toward the bottom support level.
This type of … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Troubled US Banks In 1991 Were 25 Times Worse Than Now
From a comment by “stilettoheels” on this CD post: “Yep. The commercial banks are in just fine shape. Bottom line: In Q3.08, the banks are back to the early 1990s recession by most measures. Once the early 1980s are taken out, then it will be the Great Depression II.”
The top chart above shows the number of FDIC “problem institutions” annually back to 1990 (year to date for 2008). There are currently 171 problem banks, which is higher than the peak of 136 problem banks in 2002 … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Recession Began In December 2007
It didn’t matter how many times we said it, or how we said it, we were always told we were wrong about the recession. We may have to wait six months for the “experts” to make the official announcement, but truth is we’re already there, we once said. And we were right, as we some of you.
It was December 2007 when we first reported that America was knee-deep in a recession… the same time the National Bureau of Economic Research just said a recession began.
You see, like us, the … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Forex Trading: British Pound The Biggest Loser Of The Day
The pound sterling is the big loser today (Monday) as it has lost value against the USD, the Swiss Franc, the Japanese Yen and the EURO and has trended with consistently lower lows and lower highs (higher lows and higher highs for the EUR/GBP). The pair is pressured as the likelihood of a 100 basis point cut on Thursday spreads. The low level from last week was 1.4838. The pair is currently approaching that level. I would expect some initial support at least as profit takers … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Elliott Wave Count On The CRB Commodity Index
Commodities across the board have taken massive falls throughout 2008. Let’s take a look at a possible Elliott Wave Analysis for the monthly and daily $CRB Commodity Index to see if we can place these moves within a broader structure.
CRB Index Monthly
:This structure takes price from the 1999 lows as the start of Wave 1 all the way to the 2008 highs as the termination of the final Wave 5.
Wave 1 terminated into resistance at the 200 month moving average before retracing … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - JPMorgan Chart - Head And Shoulders Pattern
JPMorgan (JPM) is has retraced its head and shoulder pattern back to the neckline. The H/S setup is within a larger broadening formation. Also check out the weak volume to the upside on the retracement. If we get a strong rally this week, this could present another nice shorting … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - It's Official - United States Is In Recession
-duh- Only the most bullish of people have continued to claim the US would escape a recession. Well it is official now:
Dec. 1, 2008The U.S. entered a recession in December 2007, according to the official recession watchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER economists met on Friday and declared the end of the expansion that began in November 2001, lasting 73 months.
The National Bureau of Economic Research says the recession began in December of 2007. I have been … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Natural Gas Prices Have Dropped -56% From Peak
It’s not just gasoline (-56%) and oil prices (-66%) that have plunged since the July peak (see top chart above), but natural gas prices have dropped as well, with futures contract prices falling -56% from the July peak and more than -20% since the first of the year (EIA data … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - A Graphical History Of The ISM And The S&P 500 Index
I am sure many out there are wondering just how bad an Institute for Supply Management index of 36.2 is in the historical context and just what it may mean for the stock market.
Rather than a bunch of statistics, I thought the chart below might help. It identifies the six previous instances since 1950 in which the ISM index dipped as low as the current level.
Not surprisingly, historical precedent recalls a number of difficult economic periods. What I find particularly interesting is … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - What Is Meant By Price "Structure?"
I’ve had a couple of questions recently on the meaning of price ’structure’ so I thought I’d take this opportunity to explain it and show an example of how analyzing price structure can give you a guideline in your trading.
Let’s think of ’structure’ as components that hold up price, or the arrangement of price itself that builds upon a basic level to greater complexity.
The easiest way to look at price ’structure’ is to compare subsequent swing highs and swing lows to determine if … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Video: Johnson & Johnson To Buy Mentor Corp. For $1.07 Billion
A new week, a new month, and a new company will become a member of the Johnson & Johnson family as the health care products manufacturer has reached an agreement to acquire cosmetics and implants maker Mentor Corp. for $1.07 billion USD. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Cancel The Party, America Is Now In Recession
From yesterday: We’re very likely in a recession now, but since it hasn’t yet been officially announced by the NBER, let me wish the current U.S. economic expansion a “Happy Seventh Birthday”!
According to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, “a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.” So the current economic … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Motorola: Don't Get Hung Up
We maintain our Hold recommendation for Motorola Inc. (MOT), a leading manufacturer of mobile handsets, network infrastructure and cable products.
In the most recent reporting period, the company’s mobile devices segment lost market share, accompanied by soaring operating losses, as Samsung recently retained the leading position in the U.S. mobile handset business. Additionally, sales of Home & Network Mobility products also declined mainly due to weaker demand and increased … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - India Stock Market: Managing Risk #5
Volatility continues unabated.W hen markets move more than 10 to 15% away from my fair value levels, I sell on the upside and buy at back closer to my fair value levels. The current volatility makes this a money spinner.
Realty sector is in focus, and this creates associated dislocation in the banking sector. I sold my long position in Bank Nifty at 4400 and it executed at 4150 on the downside. Rs. 250 in the pocket; risk position unchanged.
With the Mumbai tragedy in focus … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Dollar Opens Weaker But Rallies
Overnight Asia/Europe
USD opens weaker, rallies a bit
Majors mixed in solid two-way action
UK data unfriendly to the GBPToday’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PricesLooking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales
12:30pm USD FOMC Member Plosser SpeaksSummary
The USD is mixed in early New York after … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - UK's Temporary VAT Cut Kicks Off Today
Thanks, Alistair! Macro Man was pleasantly surprised today when he purchased his morning coffee-and-a-smoothie on his way into work. Forgetting that the VAT cut took impact today, he was flabbergasted to see that the cost of his morning necessities had been trimmed by a handsome ten pence, all the way down to £3.90. At this rate, the positive income shock from that 10 p a day will enable him to get a “free” coffee-and-a-smoothie ever eight weeks.
With deals like that, the recession … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Video: Businesses Facing A New Challenge
Small business and retailers may soon face the same foreclosure pressures homeowners have. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Google: A Gap Play Setup
Google (GOOG) has run out of volume on the upside. Last week was a holiday week, but you can see the volume divergence - I’ve highlighted the gap in green. My expectation is that we’ll get a pullback sometime here this week. The gap could come into play. The gap is right between the 61.8 and 78.6% fibo retracement on the hourly chart. I’ll put in a conditional order if Google hits 262.50 (middle of gap), then I’ll have a trailing buy stop 2.00 above the price, so that as the … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Let Citigroup Go Bankrupt
The highest paid senior counselor who also sits on the board of Citigroup (C) says he is not to be blamed for the mess at Citigroup.
Excerpts from the Wall Street Journal article.
[...]Robert Rubin said its problems were due to the buckling financial system, not its own mistakes, and that his role was peripheral to the bank’s main operations even though he was one of its highest-paid officials.“Nobody was prepared for this,” Mr. Rubin said in an interview. He cited former Federal … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Stock Market: Earnings Preview For Dec 1 - 5
December greets investors with a light earnings calendar and a large amount of economic data.
The week’s biggest scheduled event will be the Big 3 bailout. American automakers Chrysler, Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Corporation (GM) are required to provide Congress with a turnaround plan by Tuesday, Dec 2. Hearings are scheduled for the end of the week, with a vote occurring as soon as Dec 8. (A suggestion to the CEOs, don’t use the corporate jets to travel to Washington.)
Just 47 … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Liquidity, The US Dollar And Market Direction
Taking a look at last week’s posts, I was undoubtedly early in my “go short” prognostications. We now have five straight positive days for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on decreasing volume, with resistance above. Since the rally has been stronger than I expected, I have been looking for reasons to justify further bullishness. In addition to government support for Citibank (C) and consumers this week, we can take a look at actions by the Fed. John Kemp tells us that Quantitative Easing Has … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Which Is The Worst Of The Worst?
This year has seen its fair share of turkeys in the financial sector, and many of them have since disappeared from exchange traded funds (ETFs). But which is the worst of the worst?
Allan Sloane on MarketPlace Public Radio with Scott Jagow says that the top of his list goes out to the government, for letting Lehman Brothers fail. He feels that letting Lehman fail was a mistake because it had a domino effect throughout the economy and reverberated in ways nobody anticipated.
“It messed up … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Comparisons To The 1930s: Nonsense And Nitwittery
To those who lived through the Great Depression - people now in their 80s and 90s - today’s economic conditions don’t come close to rivaling the distress of the Great Depression.
“When I see that on the TV, I say to myself, ‘You don’t know a thing,’” said Flint resident Peggie Chisolm, 92, laughing.Worries mounted that the United States could be on the verge of the next depression a few financial institutions collapsed and the stock market took a dive.
But how plausible is it that … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - ETFs You May Want To Include As Stocking Stuffers For 2009
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece listing securities that funds were likely to sell, cleansing their books to avoid criticism of holding such by their investors. So far, my list has shown promise. Now, it is time to look ahead to what ETFs individual investors may want to include as stocking stuffers for 2009.
The following short list allows you to invest in part with government bail out cash on your side, and/or contain securities that have been oversold. In a global recession, ETFs … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - HealthShares ETFs Flatline
HealthShares, the exchange traded fund (ETF) family of XShares investment company isn’t feeling up to par these days.
Today, the company’s Board of Directors announced they are liquidating the company’s four underlying investment portfolios as of Dec. 31, 2008. Current market conditions, low market interest, and not so hot growth prospects in the near future gave the ETFs a less than healthy prognosis, and ultimately led to the decision to liquidate.
Back in August, revitalization … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Outlook Of The Telecom Industry In Asia
For the past several years, the telecom industry in Asia has been one of the fastest growing markets in the world, with year-on-year growth rates in excess of 50% for the region not uncommon. By September 2007, mobile subscriber count in Asia has reached 1.25 billion and even from this higher base expectation for growth rate in 2008 is still a notable 26% for the region. Overall penetration rate currently stands at 34%.
Market development in the region is characterized by two extremes. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Unprecedented Volatility Will Precede Highly Profitable Rebound
When could we see a rebound? We don’t know for sure. But if historical trends hold true, we could see a bottoming out by the middle of next year. Long-term investors seeking wealth-building opportunities could find the immediate price declines to be some of the most compelling buying opportunities of their investing lifetimes. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Mortgage Rates: They Are Not As Low As Analysts Would Have You Believe
I hope that you had a great Thanksgiving - now it’s time to talk about mortgages.
**Important - Before you get started reading this post, note that I started writing this on Wednesday the 26th using mortgage rates from that day. As of right now they are another .25% in rate higher. So the '5.5%’ used as an example below is now 5.75%. Last Friday BEFORE the Fed announcement, 30-year fixed were roughly 6%. As of today all of the hype that low rates are going to save housing is about … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - S&P 500 Overview With Projection
We’ve had a steady rally all last week in the major US equity indexes, but let’s focus on the technical position of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and view both the daily and weekly charts and note possible projections and confluences.
S&P 500 Daily:
Price is clearly in a daily downtrend with a distinct series of lower lows and lower highs. The orientation of the key daily moving averages is in the most bearish orientation possible.
However, there is a positive momentum … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - New Realities In US Commercial Real Estate
Back in June, I had a brief chat with an investment banker who specialized in commercial real estate financing. He focused on securitizations, where mortgages on hotels, office buildings, malls and other income-producing properties were sliced, diced and repackaged into instruments that were then sold to institutional investors such as insurance companies.
In his view, the commercial market was somewhat immune to the problems afflicting the residential property sector. Among other … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Chart: Yields On U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Below 3%
The chart of the week looks like it will now be a regular feature in this space. This week’s theme, once again, has a bond focus and extends the flight to safety theme from last week. The graphic below captures the full 46 year history of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note. While difficult to discern from the graph, this is the first week the yield on that bond has ever closed below 3.0%. The reason for the low yield is the overwhelming demand cause by investors who are … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - No Real Estate Bubble In Central U.S.A.
The top chart above (click to enlarge) shows the OFHEO House Price Indexes for Nevada, South Dakota, Texas and North Dakota, just recently updated through the third quarter 2008.
The bottom chart above shows the regional OFHEO House Price Indexes for the Pacific Census region (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington), the West South Central region (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas), the West North Central region (Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - South Africa ETF Weighed By Slowdown
The economy of South Africa has slowed to an alarming rate, enough to caution the market and exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Growth was almost at a standstill at an annualized 0.2% for the third quarter, which is the slowest pace in more than a decade. A recovery is not in the near future as the global credit crisis has taken away the demand for platinum and gold, report Nasreen Seria and Mike Cohen for Bloomberg.
The good news is for the South African rand, which has rallied to its … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Holiday Retail Sales Up: What Happened To The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression?
Isn’t it interesting how the media reported the 3% increase in Black Friday sales? Since we’re supposedly in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, it’s surprising that Black Friday sales are up at all. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать
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