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- Trading Friday's Bailout Move: Another Great "Learning Experience"
I was long the Nasdaq ETF QQQQ (QQQQ) early Friday morning. All anticipation was that the bailout bill would pass. At about 12:30-1:00pm, news and rumors that bailout will pass. Market is rallying, up 300 points. My QQQQ position is up significantly. I’m assuming that the bill will pass and the news will send the DJIA (^DJI) up 700 or so………..Wrong.
- Great case of sell the rumor and buy the news. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Investing Strategy: The Best Offense Is A Solid Defense
President Clinton signing the deregulation act that allowed financial institutions to co-mingle. Courtesy, New York Times, November 13, 1999.Now that Congress has passed and the President has quickly signed what may well … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Google-Yahoo Pact Briefly Put On Hold
Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) have agreed to momentarily delay the start of their search-advertising partnership, first announced in June after merger talks between Microsoft (MSFT) and the Web Portal collapsed, giving U.S. antitrust regulators more time to review the deal.
"The companies have agreed to a brief delay in implementing this agreement to continue our ongoing discussions with the Department of Justice," Yahoo … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Why Stocks Defy Logic By Falling When Bailout Bill Is Passed
On Monday, the US House of Representatives rejected the "Bail-out/Recovery" Bill narrowly, sending the Dow Jones (^DJI) plunging, closing down 777 points. Today, hours ago, the House passed the Bill by a comfortable margin. Did the Dow rally like virtually everyone expected? No - it fell almost 500 points from its intraday high. It almost makes you want to pull your hair out - let's look at these developments.
Friday's House Passage and the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Citigroup Should Walk Away And Not Protest Wells Fargo-Wachovia Deal
Aside from the passage of the bailout bill probably one of the bigger stories today is Wells Fargo (WFC) swooping in to “steal” the Wachovia (WB) buyout out from under Citigroup (C), a move that Citigroup is protesting vehemently as they already had an agreement in place and had been providing liquidity (not to mention confidence) to Wachovia.
From the FT:
Wells Fargo on Friday sparked a regulatory and … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Bailout Plan 1.1 Passes! Will We Need 2.0?
So the bailout bill finally passed. No doubt all those amendments helped convince Congress to give the nod to the legislation. While others get all excited over such proposal like the one to suspend mark to market accounting, my favorite amendment is:
SEC. 503. EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN.
For investors the key question is whether … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - U.S. Dollar Hits 13-Month High
The U.S. dollar reached a 13-month high today versus major currencies (see graph above), the highest level since September 5, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Wachovia, Wells Fargo Agree To Merge, Scraps Citi Deal
Wachovia Corporation (WB) said Friday it agreed to be acquired in a $15.1 billion all-stock deal by San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). The merger agreement between the two banks includes all of Wachovia's banking operations in a whole company transaction requiring no financial assistance from the FDIC or any other government agency.
Under the terms of the deal, which has been approved unanimously by the boards of both companies, Wachovia … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Friday's Market Recap: Congress Approves Bailout Bill But Stocks Still Down
The markets declined today fueled by economic concerns and disappointing unemployment and payroll cut data despite passage of the highly debated bailout plan. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 157.47 points or 1.50% to settle at 10,325.38. On the week the Dow tumbled nearly 815 points or 7.31%. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell 1.48% or 29.33 points in today's session to close up at 1,947.39. On the Week the Nasdaq Composite fell … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Market Close: Financial Rescue Bill Passes
The so-called rescue bill passes, but the market isn't too impressed. The Dow (^DJI) closes down 157 points, 10325; Nasdaq (^IXIC) down 29, 1947; S&P down 15, 1099. Was it just a “sell the news” day? The truth is this bill does nothing to immediately make credit markets functional. Actually, this bill will do nothing in the longer term than to raise our national deficit and lead to an increase in taxes. It cannot stop the decline in housing … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Charting: S&P ETF, SPY, Is Looking Bearish
I was asked to analyze the S&P ETF SPY (SPY). The ETF made a new low on Friday and it won’t be the last one, that’s for sure. You really have to look at 5 and 10-year charts to see where the SPY really is and how much further down the ETF possibly has to go.
The SPY has some support at this current 110 level, but I doubt it will hold for long. Especially looking at a 10-day, my choice to be bearish on the SPY comes as obvious. I highly DO NOT recommend any long … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Charting: S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 (SPX) 1-day chartWe are highly likely to head lower from here. All positions entered today (Friday) were 100% short since the breakdown. Again, there was a slight delay from when the votes were completed and when the decline actually … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - How Does Short-Selling Of Stocks Work?
There are many factors to consider when searching for new growth stock ideas such as estimate revisions, PEG ratios, and earnings growth. However, it is also important to be on the look-out for potential red flags so you can avoid those big losers that can kill a portfolio's return. One such pitfall is a high "short interest". What is short interest and how can it be helpful to you?
Shorting-Defined
First of all, it would help to define "selling short". … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Getting Beyond The Fear Itself
Perhaps Roosevelt's most famous phrase is, “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” Today, we largely find ourselves in much the same situation.
That does not mean however that fear is not something to be afraid of. Fear means a loss of confidence. People will only trade with each other, or give each other money if they have confidence that the other person will hold up their end of the bargain and/or be able to return the money. Think about it for a … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Global ETFs Pulled Down By Faltering U.S. Economy
All signs point toward the fact that the United States and our exchange traded funds (ETFs) are getting jostled around in this weakened economy. Some countries could face recession as the global economy tumbles toward a bottom.
In Singapore, predictions are that the country will dip into a recession in the current quarter for the first time since 2002. Exports and manufacturing have slumped, and tourism has fallen off, visit site to read more]
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Переслать - How To Make Sure That Your Bank Deposits Are FDIC Insured
With evidence mounting by the day that the banking industry may be in deeper than it admits, many investors are wondering what the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) actually does and how it will protect them.
This question becomes even more crucial now that, under the proposed banking-sector rescue legislation that was passed by the Senate Wednesday night, the individual cap on the level of … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - US Consumer Spending Likely To Be Down For 3Q
A quick mix tape of the usual types of things, with this one heavily slanted (for obvious reasons) towards issues related to the bailout, financials, etc:
First off a graphic looking at consumer spending over the past quarter, it comes from a WSJ article discussing the high probability that consumer spending will be down for all of Q3.
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Переслать - Energy And Oil Service Companies Look Good Long-Term
In the midst of all the anxiety about the credit crisis and fear the government will or will not step in to do something about it (in the end it will; whether the House will pass the “new and improved” Christmas tree version of the bill is an open question), there are a lot of stocks for which the basic business prospects will not change significantly.
I think the energy area is a prime example. Will a slowdown in the world economy, particularly in the OECD [The ... [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Dow Plummets In Last 15 Minutes
The market sold off hard at the end of the day today. The Dow (^DJI) dropped almost 200 points in the last 15 minutes of the trading … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Wells Fargo Steps Up To Buy Wachovia
San Francisco-based Wells Fargo (WFC), currently the largest retail home mortgage lender in the U.S., has surprised many this morning by stepping up to buy Wachovia Bank (WB) after everyone assumed Citigroup (C) would be getting the company’s banking operations. Wachovia shares, for those brave souls still holding them, are up 76% in the early market.
According to an AP report this morning, “The combined company will have total … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Surprise! Despite Its 'Black' Reputation, October Isn't The Worst Month For Stocks
Fresh off one of the most-volatile months ever for U.S. stocks, investors can't be happy that they're facing another October - the poster child for U.S. stock market crashes.
Thanks to the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987, October has a reputation for being a horrible month for stocks. But once you dig into the data, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Savers Trusting Gold More Than Banks And Governments
Gold fell sharply yesterday (Thursday) on lower oil prices and the recently surging dollar, despite unprecedented physical demand for coins and bars in the UK, US and internationally (gold closed at $840.40 down $40.20 while silver closed at $11.57 down $1.04).
As warned yesterday, anything is possible in the short term in these markets and leveraged trading in futures, CFDs and spread betting is an … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - BlackRock Shares Under Pressure, But There Is Some Hope
With the recent volatility in the financial sector, choosing a sound investment has
become an increasingly daunting task. However, BlackRock still offers some hope. While the stock is down about 10 % YTD, it has fared much better than the Financial … [visit site to read more]Article Published On GraceCheng.com - visit Grace Cheng Financial News & Opinions for more great content.
Переслать - Forex Trading Commentary: US Non-Farm Payrolls Worse Than Expected
Euro
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar Friday as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3770 figure and was capped around the $1.3900 figure. The common currency yesterday reached its lowest level since September 2007 as the U.S. House of Representatives inched closer to voting on the US$ 700 billion bailout bill. Most dealers believe the House will pass the legislation today and provide a much-needed infusion of confidence on Main Street and … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Markets To Focus On Bailout Outcome In Washington
It's all about the bail out bill once again this morning. The vote on the floor of the House is supposedly going to take place today. According to various spokespeople the vote would not be taken up if they felt it would not pass. But we heard that last time as well.
We are still against this bail out package as currently written. Today is going to be a dramatic day in Washington and on Wall Street. I will be sitting this one out and watching the charts. Maybe a day trade here or there but … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Stock Trading: Short Setups For Friday
Good setups are few and far between, but I managed to find a few I like. I am approaching with care, considering the distinct possibility of a strong counter-trend rally.
- Partner Communications (PTNR) is sitting under resistance after a high volume drop earlier in the month.
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Переслать - Capital Federal Financial: Momentum Buy Alert
Capital Federal Financial (CFFN) is distinguishing itself from its financial brethren by avoiding risky assets and producing solid earnings growth. Shares of Capital Federal are up over 30% on the year.
Company Description
Capital Federal Financial is the holding company of Capital Federal Savings Bank, a regional bank servicing the state of Kansas. The company was founded in 1893, has a market cap of $3.29 billion and is … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Did Wall Street's 'Specialists' Save Us From A 1,300-Point Drop On Monday?
The 777.68-point nosedive in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) on Monday was the single-biggest point drop ever, eradicating $1.2 trillion in shareholder wealth, and leaving mainstream investors feeling shell-shocked after the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion banking bailout bill.
But here's what most people don't know.
The damage could've been much worse.
In fact, without a little-known group of traders, known as “specialists,” Monday's … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - ECB's Trichet Holds Rates Steady But Softens Stance On Inflation
The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday (Thursday) held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%, but ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet struck a much less hawkish tone in announcing the decision and may be forced to cut rates before year-end to revive the Eurozone's shrinking economy.
“Economic activity in the euro area is weakening with contracting domestic demand and tighter financing conditions,” Trichet told a news conference. “With the weakening of demand, upside risks to price … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Stocks I Will Consider Shorting Today
I will short or consider shorting the following stocks today:
Beazer Homes (BZH) looks like a good short because of the flag forming after the 50-day MA failure. The stock also broke its uptrend entirely. I expect … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The Villains Are Now Our Saviors?
It’s no secret that I’m of the opinion that Congressional hearings are often a waste of time, that the politicians on the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committee are clueless and that Congress is to blame for mismanaging the Mortgage GSEs. Lest you think that I simply like bashing politicians for fun and sport, here is a look at some excerpts from the hearings on Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) after the latter’s accounting issues came to … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Merrill Lynch's Thain To Remain With Bank Of America
After executing a preemptive sale of investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER), Chief Executive John A. Thain will remain with Bank of America Corp. (BAC) after the merger, the Charlotte-based bank announced yesterday (Thursday).
“I am delighted that John has agreed to join Bank of America,” Kenneth D. Lewis, Bank of America's chairman and chief executive, visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Wealthy Investors Plan To Take Money Away From Their Current Advisor
WSJ reported today a new trend starting to take shape. Then again, it’s not really a “new” trend. It’s just the re-emergence of a dormant trend which seems to awaken whenever the markets start to go into the tank. Many clients feel that by having money with an advisor it guarantees that they will never lose money. This trend seems to be consistent with the current political thinking and some of the verbage in the “Bailout Bill”. Markets go up and markets go down. Clients make money … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Dumbest Article Of The Day?
CNBC has this article on their site titled “Panicky Investors Making Some Bone-headed Moves“. The article was so dumb that it prompted me to start a new feature: Dumbest Article of the Day.
So basically the gist of the article is that investors are threatening to pull their money out but financial advisors are desperately trying to hold onto them. The author thinks that investors … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Stress In The Credit Markets
Interest Rates on the Taxable debt side as of Thursday’s close (source: Bloomberg)
Here you can get a vivid picture of the stress in the credit markets. These are the rates based on the close of business today. The 10 year AAA rate is at … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Forex Trading Commentary: The ECB May Soon Lower Interest Rates
Euro
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar Thursday as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3745 level and was capped around the $1.4030 level. The common currency reached its lowest level since September 2007 as traders reacted to news that the U.S. Senate approved a US$ 700 billion to bail out the troubled U.S. financial system. A similar vote could come in the U.S. House of Representatives tonight or tomorrow. European Union officials rejected … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Stock Investors Are Pricing In Bailout Failure
NEWS: The markets were down 4% today as investors have zero confidence in our government to pass the "Wall Street and Main Street" bailout tomorrow. The Dow (^DJI) fell 348 points or 3.2%. The S&P 500 tumbled 46 points or 4.0% and the NASDAQ (^IXIC) took the biggest hit, falling 4.5% or 92 points and closed at a new three-year low. The small and mid-cap indices, which had held up better than its competitors, fell over 5% … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Today's Blue Chip Stock Market
Make no mistake about it, the herd is headed for the exits—and bail out or not they are doing it in a hurry.
In fact, according to TrimTabs Investment Research yesterday, the latest round of turmoil has sent $41 billion in equity mutual funds to the sidelines for the month through last Friday. At the same time, even bond funds have been hit hard as another $24 billion was sucked out of those retail markets.
Together, that put September’s withdraws at the top of the all time list … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - A Look Back At The Q3 Performance Of The Dow
Here is a collection of graphics from the WSJ depicting a timeline of the markets, the performance of various major market indices and the performance of the 30 companies that make up the Dow (^DJI):
First a timeline of the Q3 performance of the Dow, including notations for various key events related to interest rates, the credit crunch, bailouts, et al.
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Переслать - The Bailout Plan's Fatal Flaw
Last week Martin Wolf of the Financial Times had a great article on the bailout plan that I neglected to post, here is a quick excerpt.
From the Financial Times:
“What then is the challenge? The answer given by Hank Paulson, the all-action US Treasury secretary, last Friday, in announcing his "troubled asset relief … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The Three Hard Rules Of Elliott Wave Theory
Despite how difficult Elliott Wave Theory seems - and it's certainly not easy to interpret possible wave counts - there are really only three solid, objective rules that your wave count must follow - the rest is mere guidelines. What are these three main rules you ask?
Let me preface by saying that Elliott proclaimed that Impulse or Motive waves unfold in five wave sequences (three up separated by two corrective waves down) which forms the core of Elliott Wave. Interpreting … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - And We're On The Hook For This?
Under the bailout bill, Paulson could get $250 billion to start. Then, with congressional and presidential approval, he can get up to $350 billion. If he still needs more, Bush and Congress can authorize him to have up to $700 billion.
And if you’re interested in what the bill includes… take a look.
My personal favorites are Sec. 308, 317, and 325.
Way to be discreet with our money…
Sec. 101. Extension of alternative minimum tax relief for nonrefundable personal … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Stocks May Be Oversold, But Be Ready For More
Looking at index charts, I am not sure whether the term “oversold” has much meaning in relation to our current market. Sure, we may get an oversold bounce, perhaps if we get an emergency rate cut. But lower interest rates will do nothing to solve the underlying problem. Moreover, the market may have already priced in the bailout. We are in a steep decline, and panic has yet to truly manifest itself.
Considering the underlying fundamentals, the market is almost certainly overvalued here. We … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Bailout Plan Not For The Greater Good?
When disaster strikes, it is not unusual to see people working together for the greater good. Indeed, troubled times often bring out the best in people. Many will go out of their way to assist others, including perfect strangers.
Unfortunately, that is not always the case. Sometimes, there are those who seek to capitalize on the chaos or put the boot in to those who are on the ropes.
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Переслать - Market Summary: Stocks' Decline Is The Result Of Investors Confronting Economic Reality
Hollywood often is the gift that keeps on giving. Greg Newton tipped me off to US actor Russell Crowe's proposed bailout solution. But Crowe's math was quite off but his reasoning from this interview in Wellington, NZ was fascinating. Wouldn't this type of thinking fit-in nicely with what passes for logic from the US Congress? The highlights … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Thursday's Market Recap: Dow's Slide Also Reflects Uncertainty At General Electric
The markets were crushed today as the Dow Jones (^DJI) closed today's session at 10,482.85 down 3.22% or 348.22, with General Electric (GE) leading the decline as it fell over 9% as the company prepared to price it's offering. The S&P 500 slid to 1,976.72, declining 4.03% or 46.78 points while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) closed down at 1976.72, dropping 4.48% or 92.68 points. The 10 … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The Cost Of A Financial Bailout In The U.S. And Other Countries
Here is a chart from the economist looking at the cost of various bailouts (expressed as % of GDP) in the U.S. and other countries:
Graphic courtesy of the Economist
When we look at the cost of some of these other bailouts it … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Intraday Ascending Triangle Example In DIA
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones ETF - the DIA (DIA) - gave us a good example of an ascending triangle… that brokeout in the opposite direction as expected. Let's examine it and learn from its development.
5-Minute Chart DIA:
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Переслать - Stock Market Close: House To Vote On Friday On Bailout Bill?
Will the House pass the bailout bill on Friday? Does it matter? Sure, it matters. But, the passage of this bill isn't about keeping the stock market afloat, or stabilizing housing prices, or whatever else the propaganda machines are spewing forth. If the House doesn't pass the bill, it will be a victory for America, but the economy isn't going to magically and instantly recover. So, either way, the stock market is still in for a world of hurt. The markets may bounce on word of … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Lehman In Your ETF's Name Is Not A Worrisome Thing
A number of exchange traded fund (ETF) investors are left wondering, "What is in a name, particularly those funds with Lehman in the title?"
At times like these, you can forgive those who see a name synonymous with "bankruptcy" in the title of anything. For example, there is the Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) and the Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (TIP).
These and other funds would lead many to think that they're in the doldrums, taking their … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - While Rome Burns, Washington Looks For The Bogeyman
Yes Washington, hedge funds did cause this. Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the largest hedge funds of all time. This is disgusting. What a waste of time…they are hell-bent are taking all liquidity out of the markets.
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Переслать - Mutual Fund Giants Are Taking To ETFs
While exchange traded funds (ETFs) may not take the place of mutual funds anytime soon, they've proven themselves a force to be reckoned with. The mutual fund industry seems to be following the old saying, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em."
This has especially become evident in the wake of the credit market mess that has hurt investors with some big losses and surprises about what … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Buy-and-Hold ETF Investors Don't Have To Sit Back
Most investors and advisors had an idea that the bear was coming to Wall Street, so this gave most fair warning to shore up and be prepared, taking necessary steps to protect shares and exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Even before the crisis hit, this year had already handed up losses, and most of the advisors were already roughed up and ready to take on some severity, reports Gary Gordon for … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - John Thain Agrees To Run Bank Of America's Global Banking Division
Chief Executive of Bank of America (BAC) Ken Lewis said Thursday Merrill Lynch (MER) Chairman and CEO John Thain will be the head of BofA's global banking, securities and wealth management division once the $50 billion acquisition of the brokerage is completed. Mr. Lewis also announced that Brian Moynihan who was appointed a year ago to oversee a shakeup at B of A's investment bank - will take on a newly created enterprise role aimed at redefining the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Many Bankers Are Dodgy Punters
Note: I posted this back in May in the wake of the Credit Crunch and the Bear Stearns collapse, in light of recent events and the prevalence of banking executives walking away with millions after their companies are bailed out, they get the sack etc, I felt it was apropos enough to post it again.
Perhaps the most telling thing about the article is that it was written on January 5th, thus it predates the Bear Stearns collapse, the Lehman (LEHMQ.PK) Bankruptcy, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Satire: A Breakdown Of The Bailout Plan's Expenditures
For the record this is satire and I’m not making the claim that this is how the bailout money will be spent, BUT……
Graphic courtesy of the Onion….. if this was the bailout plan at least it would be … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Fed Discount Window Sees Record Borrowing
Systemic risk in banking system is a phrase that has gained renewed prominence in literature - particularly, in recent weeks. With banks and investment firms continuing to experience widespread reduction in credit availability, providing further evidence of the credit markets squeezing the system — at this point there is virtually nowhere else where banks or firms can get short term funding except the central bank.
According to DJNewswires, with interbank lending markets barely functioning … [visit site to read more]
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- Market Summary: Stocks' Decline Is The Result Of Investors Confronting Economic Reality
- Great case of sell the rumor and buy the news. … [visit site to read more]
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