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- Reasons Why The US Dollar Continues To Rally Strongly In Forex Trading
Financial institutions have tightened their grip on their purse strings, and their level of caution in dealing with other banks and financial firms have risen sharply since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Forex trading volume is now much reduced compared to before, just like in stock trading. Today is another day of uncertainty in global markets, and despite all odds, the US dollar has chalked up another day of strong gains … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Why The Senate Bailout Bill Will Fail Taxpayers
My sister lives in a landmark building in Coral Gables, Fla. There was a fire in one apartment in the building. After that fire was brought under control, the fire department - for some unknown reason - dropped a hose in the burned apartment, and left the water running … for hours.
That inane maneuver destroyed many apartments, crippled the building's infrastructure and resulted in the building being temporarily condemned. The entire building was closed down for many months. Every person … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Financial Bailout Bill Clears The Senate, Heads For Another House Vote
The U.S. Senate last night (Wednesday) passed a $700 billion banking-sector bailout package, and will now watch as the House of Representatives reviews the inducement-laden pact. The House rejected an earlier version of this bill on Monday.
The legislation, approved by a 74-25 vote, authorizes the federal government to buy problem financial assets from banks and other financial institutions that have been squeezed by a credit crunch that stems from a burst housing bubble that's led to … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Is The Now-Bloated Financial Rescue Bill Better?
The Senate passed a new version of the financial industry bailout legislation. The House could hold another vote on the proposal as early as Friday.
The passage of the bill is a positive, though there were way too many unrelated amendments included in the legislation. For example, it provides tax credits for biodiesel and extends depreciation rules for restaurant improvements. There is a reason why this bill is 451 pages long.
The amendments were added to get additional votes. The … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Market Turmoil And US Dollar Vulnerability Bolster Gold's Reputation
Gold rose yesterday (Wednesday) despite continuing dollar strength and falling oil prices (gold closed at $880.80 up $6.80, while silver closed at $12.71 up 53 cents). Once again in after hours trading there was determined selling which pushed the price as low as $862/oz in Asia prior to rallying in early European trade to over $870/oz.
There appears to be good support in the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - ETNs Fall Under Scrutiny Amid Credit Crisis
Exchange traded notes (ETNs) have been under increasing scrutiny with the current market conditions, and the recent sinking of Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ.PK) had investors scrambling for answers concerning the default debt associated with notes.
John Spence for MarketWatch reports that Lehman had three ETNs in existence at the time of the company defaulting on its … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Is The U.S. Prone To Hyperinflation?
Here’s an interesting story about a country in Africa that has seen hyperinflation devastate the economy and the people.
Zimbabwe is in the grip of one of the great hyperinflations in world history. The people of this once proud capital have been plunged into a Darwinian struggle to get by. Many have been reduced to peddlers and paupers, hawkers and black-market hustlers, eating just a meal or two a day, their hollowed cheeks a testament to their … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - US Employment Picture: September Non-Farm Payrolls Preview
The upcoming release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling period should send the headline estimate of job losses above the recent trend. The … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Different Markets Seem To Be Reacting In Different Ways
If Macro Man scratches his head any harder this morning, his thick mop of (graying) hair may soon develop an unfortunate bald patch. The news is coming thick and fast, and markets don’t seem sure of how to react. Consider:
- Ireland guarantees all domestic bank liabilities….
- …prompting France to propose a Europe-wide bail-out solution (visit site to read more]
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Переслать - ETF-Tracking Dow Jones Dividend Index Changes Component
The exchange traded fund (ETF)-tracking index, Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index, has undergone some component changes.
Union BanCal Corp. (UB) is deleted from the index and will be replaced by General Electric Co. (GE). UB is being taken off the index because of the recent acquisition by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. The change will not be official until Oct. 1, 2008.
The featured index already tracks the top 100 highest … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Financial Stocks To Avoid
With all the fireworks going on in Washington and on Wall Street, people may have overlooked some of the numbers showing things are not going all that well down on Main Street. This morning, we got the ISM manufacturing index for September, and it was just plain ugly. The overall index fell to 43.5 from 49.9 in August. The index is constructed so that any reading over 50 indicates expansion, and any under 50, contraction. This is the lowest reading since 2002 — the last time we were in … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - General Electric Gets Cash Infusion From Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
General Electric Co. (GE) said yesterday (Wednesday) that it will sell “at least” $12 billion in common shares to investors, and another $3 billion in preferred stock to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A), (BRK-B), making GE the latest U.S. giant that's been forced to raise capital in recent weeks.
The moves come as the conglomerate - whose GE Capital finance arm generates nearly half the company's revenue - has effectively seen … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Global Investing Roundups: IBM, Micron, Eli Lilly
- Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) is in advanced talks to acquire ImClone Systems Inc (IMCL) for $70 a share, topping a rival bid from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday (Wednesday). Bristol already owns about 17% of ImClone and has submitted an … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Many Commodity Stocks Are Still Short Candidates
NO, NO, and NO! No long positions! In fact, most of these names are still short candidates for the long-term. Anyone hoping for some kind of nice big bounce will be disappointed. Fundamentals? Oh yea, look where they took you now. Technicals display price action, and price action is the consensus estimate of market participants, and I’m sure they know all the fundamentals they could possibly know. Sudden and dramatic changes in sentiment occur for any number of reasons, and the important thing … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Malaise In U.S. Spreads To ETFs In Europe, Asia
The U.S. economy isn't just affecting every corner of our own country, from our entire financial system, our jobs and our exchange traded funds (ETFs), but other areas of the world are hurting, too.
The European Commission has demanded that the United States take responsibility for its crisis and its failure to pass a $700 billion bailout, report Adam Sage, Rory … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Market Wrap: Senate Passes Bailout Bill By A Vote Of 74 To 25
SENATE PASSES BAIL OUT FIANANCIAL STABILIZATION BILL BY A VOTE OF 74 TO 25 MARGIN (SUPERMAJORITY)
Yes, the new and improved (sarcasm) bail out bill has been approved by the Senate by a super majority. Now the bill will go back to the House for a vote on Friday. The new bill has additional measures that were not included in the bill rejected by the House on Monday.
Also, it is being … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Debate On Mark-To-Market Accounting
We have once again eavesdropped on what our Zacks Equity Research senior analysts have been discussing with one another lately. The most recent topic? The proposed suspension of ”mark-to-market” accounting (that is, the assigning of value based on an item’s current market price):
Dirk van Dijk, CFA, Director of Zacks Equity Research: I’m not sure how many accounting principals are more fundamental than “lower of cost or market.” There are some transactions being done … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Safe Stock Plays For Dangerous Days
Are we having fun yet? The largest bank failure in history… The worst one day point drop in the Dow in history… the third-largest point gain for the Dow in history… The biggest (proposed) bailout in history… Rumors of panicking customers taking large sums of cash out of their banks… And that’s in less than a week!
Consequently, I’m feeling pretty good about my advice of a few weeks ago (see “visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The U.S. Economy After The Bailout
The bailout reminds me of a Hail Mary pass thrown to the 5th wide receiver who is being covered by three defenders and is currently on the 5-yard line, whilst the team’s future hall of famer is standing wide open in the middle of the end zone. Sure the 5th wide receiver may catch the ball and yes it would set you up for the field goal that could send the game into OT, but throwing the ball to a triple covered 5th WR instead of your wide open hall of famer is a recipe for disaster.
Ignoring … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The U.S. Government's Trillion Dollar Hedge Fund
Here is a look at the Government’s presence (or investment) in various companies due to bailouts, rescues, etc.
Graphic courtesy of the WSJ
When you look at the potential losses the FDIC had to take on in order for Citigroup (C) to … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Charting Of S&P 500 Index: Ascending Triangle Forming
1-day S&P 500
We started out this morning with a gap down and formed a descending triangle. The moment we broke above 1,145, we were heading to a higher low. The rally was able to sustain itself … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Wednesday's Market Recap: Warren Buffett's Huge Vote Of Confidence In General Electric
The Markets were volatile today ultimately ending with a humble loss. The Dow Jones (^DJI) closed today's session at 10,831.07, down 0.18% or 19.59 points from yesterday. During today's session, the Dow fell as low as 10,631.95. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) slid to 2,069.40, declining 1.07% or 22.48 points led by a poor performance by Technology stocks. The S&P 500 closed down at 1,161.06, dropping 0.45% or 5.30 points. … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - How The Gap-Fade Tactic Perform In September
What a month September was for the market. It lived up to its reputation as a weak month historically. So, how did the gap-fade tactic work in the month of September? How many overnight gaps occurred in the DIA Dow Jones ETF (DIA) and how many of those filled? It's time to take a look as a new month is upon us.
I define an "overnight gap" as an open that is at least 20 cents in the DIA (20 Dow Points) different than yesterday's (or Friday's) close. A … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Warren Buffett Investing Billions In General Electric
General Electric (GE) the world's second-largest company plans to offer at least $12 billion through a common stock offering to the public - scheduled to be priced ahead of Thursday's market open. In addition, GE announced that it has reached agreement to sell $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A).
Buffett's investment will come with a 10% dividend and be callable after three … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Gold Is Leading The Euro
The CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE), proxy for the EURO, is retesting the 139 level. It was at that level, roughly a year ago. The volume is dropping off on the retest, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Market Summary: Investors Focus Only On Bailout, Not On Economic News
"I couldn't have gotten this deal six months ago," so says Warren Buffett regarding his GE score. Perhaps one might add, "…and you never will either, so bug out!" The gang at CNBC is pretty excited to have him as an owner. I wonder if they'll give him his own show. How about calling it "My Big Money!"?
The congressional bailout bucket brigade is meeting again. They're already decorating the proposal with all manner of non-bailout related nonsense like: … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Congress Lacks Real Business Experience Rather Than Economic Literacy
Interesting little tidbit from the WSJ's "Real Time Economics Blog" around the economic literacy levels of the members of Congress:From the WSJ:
As Congress works on one of the most important pieces of economic legislation in a generation, a Washington research group has pointed out that more than 8 in 10 members of Congress don't have a formal educational background in the business, economics, or finance fields. The research by the Center for Economic and Entrepreneurial Literacy , which aims to educate the general public about finance issues, showed that about 14% have degrees in economics-related fields and just 6.7% specifically have an economics degree. More than 30% of members have degrees in politics and government, while 18% majored in humanities. "It's interesting that those who are responsible for solving the biggest economic crisis in generations don't have the educational background to know the difference between commercial paper and copy machine paper," said James Bowers , managing director of CEEL." CEEL looked only at undergraduate majors or minors and graduate degrees in economics, business and finance. Law degrees weren't included in the tally. Such a rubric leaves off Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and ranking member Richard Shelby , as well as House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and ranking member Spencer Bachus . They all have law degrees, but don't have formal education in other economics-related fields.
Personally I think the real problem here isn't so much the lack of formal education as it is the lack of formal EXPERIENCE in the world's of business and/or finance, as the business world is full of people who majored in Engineering, Humanities, Law or Mathematics who go on to become quite successful in the business world. It's not that our Congress isn't full of educated people it's that it isn't necessarily full of educated BUSINESS PEOPLE, and more specifically business people who have a solid understanding of the dynamics at play in this particular crisis. After all when you hear the rhetoric coming out of Washington around the bailout plan (for and against), the potential benefits/costs/negative aspects of it, not to mention the usual rhetoric around economic and business issues, it's quite clear that most of these individuals are rather clueless. So for me it's not so much their educational background as it is their working knowledgebase. Still the point around economic illiteracy at the average citizen level and within our government is very valid, it's quite rare to hear a politician speak knowledgeably on business or economics instead of just parroting their political party's ideological talking points. You can read more here. Sources: The WSJ: "Real Time Economics: Most Lawmakers Don't Have Economic Education" -- Phil Izzo, October 1, 2008.Переслать - Apple Decides To Drop iPhone Non-Disclosure Agreement
In response to widespread criticism from the iPhone development community, Apple (AAPL) said Wednesday that it has decided to drop its restrictive non-disclosure agreement (NDA) for released iPhone software.
We put the NDA in place because the iPhone OS includes many Apple inventions and innovations that we would like to protect, so that others don't steal our work. It has happened before", said the company in a visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Havoc In Fidelity Magellan Fund Could Steer More Assets To ETFs
Along with the general market turmoil, exchange traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds have been getting hit. But one of the oldest and most venerable mutual funds in particular is facing big losses as a result of the credit crises: the Fidelity Magellan (FMAGX).
In August, the fund hung onto shares from the troubled American International Group (AIG), and also boosted its position in Morgan Stanley (MS), visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Renewable Energy Tax Credits To Be Included In Senate Bailout Package
We’ve had false alarms several times before. Last week, we all thought for sure the expiring tax credits for solar and wind would be renewed when both the House and the Senate passed bills that included extending them.
Turns out, it was all too good to be true. Here’s what happened.
Although each chamber of Congress passed legislation that targeted extending the tax credits, they did so in different bills. So, for the measure to pass, the differences in the bills would have to be resolved … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Stock Picks For Thursday
It’s hard to say but the current reality still telling us to be cautious and be away from this sector. The current financial problem may spread into the European and Asia financial system sooner than later. This is an issue extremely complex to understand, but very likely to happen, especially when there are banks that have typically assets with long maturities and short-term liabilities and therefore, even healthy banks may face problems in current conditions. In addition, banks in Europe, … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Poor Manufacturing And Mortgage Data Extend ETF Slump
Stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs) are trading down this morning, but for once it's not completely related to the impending $700 billion bailout plan. Instead, it's largely because a key measure of manufacturing in the United States fell sharply.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) index fell to a reading of 43.5 in September, and it's the lowest reading since the 40.8 one that came in October 2001, on the heels of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Gafisa S.A. Affected By U.S. Crunch
Gafisa S.A. (GFA) is extremely well positioned in the Brazilian real estate market. The company is a recognized brand and has been growing through acquisitions in order to consolidate its leading position.
The recent joint venture with Tenda will enhance the company’s presence on the low-income segment. The long-term potential for growth in the local mortgage business is huge, and its massive inventory of land already acquired, as well as construction in progress, land … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Hewlett-Packard Acquires LeftHand Networks
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) announced Wednesday that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire LeftHand Networks, a company focused on storage virtualization and iSCSI storage area network (SAN) solutions.
The Boulder, Colo.-based co. enables midsize co.'s and remote offices or branches of large corporations to cost-effectively protect critical business data. As the largest iSCSI vendor LeftHand Networks provides customers with highly available storage solutions that are … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - My Own Attempt At A Ridiculous Bailout Plan
For the record this plan is slightly tongue in cheek, but at the end of the day if the Government can come up with a ridiculous plan why can’t I come up with a more viable plan that’s just ridiculous expensive? To set the proper context let’s assume that (for some reason) the Government is going to spend $500-$700 billion to bailout the economy and so the only question is “how” the Government will spend the money as opposed to IF.
Let’s assume that the government is going to spend $500 … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Asset Managers, Like Investors, Turn To Safe Haven ETFs
Asset managers that deal heavily in exchange traded funds (ETFs) are taking defensive stances on the current market and buying hard, tangible assets like gold and commodities.
Gold is, and has always has been the most traditional safe haven. As lawmakers are working out a plan to save financial markets, many people want to know where to put their money. One thing is for certain: if inflation rises, food and energy are going to become that much more expensive, reports visit site to read more]
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Переслать - US ISM Manufacturing Report Points To Recession
Here’s something of a newsflash for you: The economy is rapidly slowing down.
That’s the undeniable story from the Institute for Supply Management today as their latest report showed manufacturing had contracted more than forecast.
From Marketwatch by Greg Robb entitled: Factory sector … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Effects Of U.S. Economy Could Sway Australia's ETFs
Australia's Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, has stood up to stress the strength of his country's financial system which could, in turn, benefit exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track indexes based Down Under.
Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens noted that while our own banks are struggling, Australia's banks continue to weather the storm, reports Paul Kelly for the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Ironically, Market Uncertainty Is Pushing US Dollar Higher
While everyone’s talking about the volatile wide swings in the US stock markets, the Great Depression, absence of liquidity and credit in the financial markets, and the bailout deal-or-no-deal, the US dollar has been rallying against major currencies such as the Euro, British pound and Swiss franc for the third day in a row on Wednesday in the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - A Week In The Life Of VIX Calls
Last week I talked a little bit about VIX Options as Catastrophe Insurance and talked about how VIX (^VIX) options are priced off of VIX futures, not the cash/spot VIX index that is quoted in the press. A lot can happen in a week.
In the graphic below, I compare VIX October calls for selected strikes from 10 to 60 as they were quoted (using the midpoint of the bid and ask) at about 2:30 p.m. EDT on September 22nd and again after the market closed on September … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Forex Trading Commentary: EUR/USD Falls To Three-Week Low
EURO
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3975 level and was capped around the $1.4175 level. The common currency reached its weakest level since 11 September as traders speculated the U.S. Senate would pass a US$ 700 billion … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Why The Bailout Will Translate Into $250 Oil
I've been predicting record oil prices for a number of years now, so when crude oil prices recently plunged from their record highs, I warned investors and consumers that the decline was nothing more than a temporary respite.
But now it's clear that the fallout from the $700 billion banking bailout pact will virtually guarantee that visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Intraday Trading Actions Of The S&P 500 Index
The only way I can describe the recent stock market activity is that of a wild "Roller Coaster" ride. Up, down sharply, up again, down again - nauseating, but fun if you like the wild swings (or have short-term strategies to take advantage of them). Let's take a closer look at the S&P 500 to see some of these swings.
S&P 500 15-min chart:
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Переслать - Now May Not Be The Best Time To Buy Stocks
In light of the recent volatility and the ongoing debate about the meltdown and proposed solutions, one important question comes to mind for investors. What do we do about equity positions?
While the VIX spiking up to 50 on the Monday sell-off has the classic signs of a capitulation bottom, near term movements are highly dependent on news flow. In the short term, investors aren't bearish enough for the market to make an intermediate term bottom. Mark Hulbert’s analysis shows that there is … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Market Open: Investors To Focus On How The Senate Will Vote On The Bailout Bill
Good morning everyone. The market is focused yet again on the bailout bill. The US Senate will vote on a modified bill tonight by connecting the bill the House voted down onto a bill that includes a tax cut and the addition of FDIC limit changes. They are trying to make a pile of crap smell pretty so it will get passed.
Futures are down in the pre market on what can only be apprehension of what happens next.
SEPT ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -8K V -50KE
- Prior revised Lower from … [visit site to read more]Article Published On GraceCheng.com - visit Grace Cheng Financial News & Opinions for more great content.
Переслать - Quarterly Results Of A Hypothetical Income Portfolio
Another calender quarter is behind us and it was one of the ugliest in my memory as far as stock investing goes. The market showed tremendous fluctuations with record daily gains and losses, but finished the quarter down significantly with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) down over 12% for the 3 months and the NASDAQ (^IXIC) off almost 10%.
During the quarter I changed my Income Portfolio to an … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - The SEC Is Changing The Rules Of The Game
A major reason for the meltdown in the financials has been the de-valuing of assets held on the financial’s balance sheets. As the assets drop in value, “Mark to Market” accounting rules, enforced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), require that firms write down the value of those assets to reflect their true value or reality. This rule has caused writeoffs to feed upon themselves. As assets decline in value, they must be written down. When all firms are writing down the … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Betting Against The US Consumer
At last. September (and with it, the third quarter) is over, and we can now all hopefully move on with our lives. For some, of course, September’s volatility proved fatal; while the fate of listed companies has been on the front page of the newspaper in recent weeks, there may well be bad news in the pipeline as September’s hedge fund returns begin to trickle in.
So the likelihood of further apparently puzzling, flow-driven price action in financial markets appears to be very high … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Berkshire Stake Brings Confidence And Credibility To Top China Electric Carmaker BYD
In a move that underscores the potential of China's auto market - as well as the viability of so-called “green” technology - investing guru Warren Buffett's MidAmerican Energy Holding Co. will pay roughly $230 million for a 10% stake in BYD Co. Ltd., a Chinese producer of both cars and specialized batteries.
MidAmerican is 87.4% owned by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A), (BRK-B), which just last week paid $5 billion for a stake in Goldman Sachs … [visit site to read more]
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Переслать - Charting: LBS Industries
A reader wanted me to analyze LBS Industries (LXU). The chart looks like it hit a near-term bottom, doesn’t it? It’ll be a very short one if it is. The red circle is the breakaway gap down that broke the uptrend and the blue circle is the very sudden dead cat bounce. The gap was unable to be filled and therefore the highly likely move is lower.
visit site to read more] Article Published On GraceCheng.com - visit Grace Cheng Financial News & Opinions for more great content.
Переслать - Credit Crisis Update: U.S. Stocks Notch Record Gains On Investor Hopes For A New Bailout Plan
U.S. stocks soared yesterday (Tuesday) - with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gaining 485 points in posting its third-biggest point gain ever - as investors surged back into stocks just one day after the surprise rejection of a $700 billion bailout plan touched off a record sell-off.
On Monday, after the House of Representatives refused to approve the compromise bailout accord, the Dow … [visit site to read more]Article Published On GraceCheng.com - visit Grace Cheng Financial News & Opinions for more great content.
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управлять всей подпиской: http://www.rss2email.ru/manage.asp - Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) is in advanced talks to acquire ImClone Systems Inc (IMCL) for $70 a share, topping a rival bid from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday (Wednesday). Bristol already owns about 17% of ImClone and has submitted an … [visit site to read more]
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