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- Warren Buffett Versus Jim Cramer
Two of the most widely-followed investment personalities were out with some fairly interesting articles late last week. The title probably gave away that I’m talking about Warren Buffett (the richest man in the world) and Jim Cramer (the whiniest man in the world). Buffett came out with a bullish long-term call on U.S. equities, and Cramer came out with an article that sounded a bit defensive and critical of Buffett’s piece.
Before delving into the two articles, let’s step back and … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. 
Переслать - Push For More Stimulus Could Stimulate Markets
Credit markets are finally showing some signs of movement, giving hope that exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Wall Street will soon feel a little relief.
Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke is testifying in Congress today, and said another round of government stimulus could be a good idea, reports Jeannine Aversa for the Associated Press. Democrats have been pushing for one, while the Bush administration is cool to the idea.
Bernanke says the economy will probably be weak for several quarters, so … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Dollar Up Against Euro, Swiss Franc And British Pound
Euro
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today (Monday) as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3330 level and was capped around the $1.3530 level. The common currency failed to sustain earlier intraday gains and moved to the downside as U.S. equity markets moved positively out of the open. The German government approved strict conditions for the appropriation of its €500 billion rescue package designed to bolster the German banking system. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - OPEC Expected To Call For Production Cuts At Emergency Meeting Friday
The Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is looking to stabilize global crude oil prices at $70 to $90 a barrel, which is why the cartel has called an emergency meeting in Vienna on Friday.
The cartel had been scheduled to meet Nov. 18.
OPEC rarely makes such price projections. But in the last few weeks, the cartel has become more vocal about the price range for crude its members consider acceptable - especially after oil prices skidded below the $70-a-barrel … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - GBP/USD Pair Forming A Double-Bottom Setup
The GBP/USD pair is forming a nice double-bottom setup that is also meeting resistance from a sharp decline and appears to be oversold. If this pair touches the 1.17380 mark, I will be buying and looking for a rebound of 25-100 pips. As always with a play like this, I like to set the stop-loss pretty loose at 100 or more pips, because I feel the resistance will almost always pull this setup back higher. Taking a look at the 1hr chart I have posted below, we have a nice double-bottom, with … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - SPX Historical Volatility Snapshot
Adam at Daily Options Report had a post up over the weekend in which he explained why he has lately preferred 10 day historical volatility to 30 day volatility.
Given that I track a lot of historical volatility data, I thought it might be interesting to post a graphic showing historical volatility as calculated (essentially as the standard deviation of the log of returns) over a variety of rolling lookback periods ranging from 10-100 days. The results show a steady increase in … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - US Stocks, While Less Expensive, Are Far From Cheap
Financial markets appear to have had a Damascene moment on Friday evening, receiving an epiphany that has carried over into today’s trading. Simply put, markets seem to have decided at some point on Friday afternoon that the dizzying array of bailouts, programs, packages and nationalizations that have been directed at the money markets is finally enough to fix the problem.
Swap spreads started to tighten aggressively on Friday p.m. and have continued to do so today. US 2 year spreads, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Pre US Market - It's A Nail Biter
Market participants are biting their nails wondering which direction we go. The short term trend is in question.
The chart below shows the S&P futures and it reveals that for the near term we are stuck in a range between 947 and 962. A move above or below these levels will set the direction for the next day or two. But I am still looking at the larger picture triangle pattern … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - China Should Buy All IMF Gold: 'Father Of The Euro' Robert Mundell
Gold has rallied 2.5% this morning after falling some 8% last week as the “dash for cash” and the deleveraging of the international financial system gathered pace. In the process, gold gave up most of the gains of the last 5 weeks in just one week. Gold was trading at some $740/oz on September 11th and subsequently surged to over $924/oz as Lehman Brothers collapsed and the global financial crisis deepened.
Gold is wrongly being treated as just another commodity akin to pork bellies … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Buy, Sell Or Hold: PepsiCo
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) shares plunged 12% in a single day last Tuesday - their worst one-day showing in 26 years - after the world’s largest snack maker and No. 2 soft-drink producer announced it would slash 3,300 jobs after its profits fell more than expected for the quarter and it lowered its forecast for the rest of the year.
The shares, which have traded as high as $79.79 during the past 12 months, closed Friday at $53.88. Pepsi’s 52-week low is $50.65.
Allow me to get right to the … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Here's Why The Stock Market Relief From Last Week May Not Last
While investors remain extremely concerned about the volatility of the U.S. stock market, the weakness of the American economy and the uncertainty of the global financial markets, last week brought “slight” relief from the excessive panic of the eight-trading-session losing streak. Bear in mind that each new economic report, earnings statement, news report or trading session represents a new opportunity for fear and uncertainty to reemerge.
Fortunately, next week’s economic calendar … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Doing Away With Mark-to-Market Will Solve Everything…They Think
Look out, because we are headed for a lost decade…at least. They are messing with mark-to-market rules globally. Now, it will be a reclassification race to see who can write up their assets right to the edge of the law without looking too obvious.
This will just push out losses for a long time and will make actual losses look larger than they really are because ultimately these 'assets’ are worth what they are worth. Additionally, when a written-up asset goes bad the actual … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Will America Pay Heed To Warren Buffett?
The financial markets are being tossed around on a daily basis. Government officials from the US and many other countries are rushing to push through plan after plan in an attempt to alleviate the tensions in the global credit markets. Almost every day, there’s something new being discussed. Big funds are shifting their money into the US dollar, which is acting like the eye of the storm. Despite soft US economic data, the US dollar continued its reign in forex trading, advancing against … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Update On Stock Market Scenarios
Take a quick peek at where we are in the stock markets:
Now take a look at the three scenarios I proposed in my last post and tell me which scenario we are in:
It is still hard to identify which scenario we are in but it sure looks like the “green” one. We retraced 40% hitting our heads at 1000 before dropping back down to 900. However, it is important to note that “wave b” peaked on Oct 14 instead of my predicted Oct 22, 2008, so things are moving much faster than I expected … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - A Close Look At The Triangle Forming On S&P 500 Index
Despite the volatility of last week, a relatively orderly symmetrical triangle is forming on the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) which could be resolved early next week. Let’s examine the S&P 500 daily structure and then the 30min chart for clearer insights on this consolidation pattern.
S&P 500 Daily:
The daily chart looks horrendous for long-term investors and indeed it has been. Price was unable to successfully rise above the 50 day EMA meaningfully since May (what a … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - OPEC Cheats: It Overproduces By 500,000 Barrels Per Day
The chart above is from the Net Oil Exports blog, and shows the difference between: a) OPEC’s official quotas and b) OPEC’s typically higher actual production, demonstrating that “OPEC almost always cheats as a group. They over-produce by 500,000 barrels per day … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Where Are The Equity Bears?
After one of the biggest equity market declines we’ve seen in recent memory and a looming worldwide recession, investors should be worried and bearish, right? It seems not. Maybe this all stems from Warren Buffett’s clarion call to buy US equities last week. … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Pakistan On The Verge Of Bankruptcy, Presses Allies For Support
Pakistan said Friday that it would seek $4 billion in financial assistance, mostly from the World Bank, the Financial Times reported. Pakistan, a nuclear power and neighbor to Afghanistan, is on the verge of bankruptcy and if it does not receive the assistance it requires, the economy could collapse resulting in political upheaval and social unrest.
Pakistan has been wracked by inflation, currently running at 25% and its foreign reserves are dwindling. The nation’s currency, the rupee, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Just Whose Side Are You On, Mr Warren Buffett?
First I have an editorial comment:
Just who is Warren Buffett looking out for? On Friday October 17th, 2008 Warren Buffett wrote a piece for the New York Times entitled “Buy American. I Am”.
In this op-ed article; Warren said that he is buying stocks…
[...]So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Stocks That Could Breakout And Up
I found a few more I like. All of these are for long trades, but, again, the stance here is very cautiously bullish.
EchoStar Corp (SATS) looks likely to break out of this wedge to the upside. I will be looking for a move over Friday’s high. Michael Brush also mentions SATS as a good value in an article last week, stating, “By (Glenn) Tongue’s calculation, the company now trades for substantially less than the value of just its cash and the satellite and broadcast businesses. He … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Is It Time To Pick Up Value Stocks On The Cheap?
I was watching that DirecTV (DTV) commercial the other day with the little girl from the 1982 movie Poltergeist, and was reminded of a part in the movie when she was trapped inside the nether world of ghosts that were terrorizing her family’s home, and would cry out: “mommy…..” in a haunting and echoing tone.
It was pretty scary actually.
Not unlike the turmoil in the markets in the last year, especially in the last month or so, that has driven a lot of traders and regular folks … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Behind The (Bad) Numbers
One interesting side effect of the mushrooming financial crisis is that many Wall Street movers-and-shakers are probably not as detached as they once were when it comes to analyzing and assessing economic and other data.
Instead of plugging datapoints into computer models and cranking out reality-defying forecasts (which tend, more often than not, to mirror the meaningless dross produced by competitors), they are thinking about how the latest developments may affect them personally — … [visit site to read more]Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - A Bull Market In Lawsuits?
Some things are entirely predictable. Like, for example, the fact that when the red ink is flowing, a rising tide of criminal charges and lawsuits is never far behind. Indeed, I’ve noted on more than one occasion that the legal profession may well be in a major bull market by the time the Great Unraveling reaches its zenith — or, depending on your perspective, its nadir. In “Financial Crisis Provides Fertile Ground for Boom in Lawsuits,” New York Times reports on developments that … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Week Ahead In U.S. Financial Markets (October 20-24 2008)
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales.
Fed Talk
Ahead of the FOMC meeting on 29 October, the week will see a modest quantity of Fed talk. On Monday, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Very Cautiously Bullish
The Investor’s Business Daily signaled that we are in a confirmed rally after Thursday’s rally. I see a remarkable number of charts that look like this:
Coach (COH) came off of the low with increasing volume, pulled back on decreasing volume, and rose again on increasing volume to create a higher low. We may have a confirmed rally, but volume is lackluster, and leadership non-existent. I am not seeing many charts to inspire trades in either direction, so I am likely to focus on a … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - ETF Spotlight: CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
ETF Spotlight on CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY), part of a recurring series.
Assets
$843 millionHoldings
This fund seeks to track the price of the Japanese yen.Brief summary of the sector or area the fund covers: This fund began on Feb. 12, 2007, and tracks the national currency of Japan. Recent market volatility has sent investors in a flight to safety toward the yen, whose appeal has an inverse relationship with the appetite for risk. A low-yielding yen is a barometer … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Stock Picks And Trade Ideas For The Week Ahead - GOOG, FSLR, RIMM, LVLT
Confidence among American consumers fell more than expected in October, at a time when the fears of a sharp economic recession are affecting the families. The Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers said its index of confidence plummeted to 57.5 in October from 70.3 in September. The average of last year which was 85.6 points.
This data still show signs of clear deterioration of the economical functionality. It’s really complicated to predict the future of the market right … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Wall Street Bankers To Receive $70 Billion In Compensations
Wall Street compensation has emerged again as a hot topic. According to British newspaper, The Guardian - financial workers at Wall Street’s top banks, are to receive pay deals worth more than $70 billion for their disastrous work so far this year. The irony of this new development is that they will get paid despite the fact of how badly their respective firms are doing or what shareholders in financial firms have lost.
But what makes the story even more interesting is that a … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - There's Sure No Farm Recession In The U.S.
There’s sure no recession in U.S. agriculture - “Big Farm” is doing very, very well this year, according to data from the USDA:
1. Farm income in 2008 ($95.7 billion) is up by almost 64% compared to 2006 ($58.5 billion), see top chart above.
2. Farm real estate has increased in value by 53% during the last four years, from $1.34 trillion in 2004 to more than $2 trillion in 2008, see middle chart above.
3. Farm equity has increased by almost 50% since 2004, to a record … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Effort To Avoid A Repeat Could Bolster Asia's ETFs
The ongoing market turmoil is leaving many Asian markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) with unpleasant flashbacks to their own crisis more than 10 years ago.
Few rejoiced more than Asia when the massive intervention by both American and European governments was announced. But they haven’t forgotten that an economy’s pain hangs around a lot longer than a market downturn.
No country can hope to be void of a global financial meltdown, but the region may not face the sort of meltdown … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Impressive Earnings From Schlumberger
Friday before the opening bell Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) announced their third quarter 2008 earnings results, and they were promising to say the least. Here is a look at the numbers compared to the other relevant quarters (Quarterly revenues first followed by quarterly earnings per share):
Q3 2008 Actual - $7.26B, $1.25
Q3 2008 Estimated - $7.02B, $1.25
Q2 2008 Actual - $6.75B, $1.16
Q3 2007 Actual - $5.93B, $1.09As you can see from the numbers, Schlumberger has had … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Bond ETFs Trade At Discount To NAV
The credit crisis has suddenly made certain areas a lot more interesting than they normally would be: just look at commercial paper and bond exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Record volatility in the markets has wound up creating a gap between the value of bond ETF holdings and what the ETFs are trading at on the market, reports Trang Ho for Investor’s Business Daily.
Jim Wiandt for Index Universe wrote earlier this week about the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG), which had an 8% … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - Economists Don't Understand Capital Markets
A week ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) capped its worst week since 1914. The MSCI World Index of equities in 23 developed countries slid 20 percent, the most since records began in 1970. This week, with a modest recovery, life moved on.
That’s not to say that people are not just as anxious. Perhaps they are even more so because this week they have had the time to review their holdings and dwell on the results. Most people are emotionally injured, some overwhelmed.
Yes, … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - What Is The Investor To Do?
The past few months have certainly been a train wreck for most investors. Professional money managers and individual investors alike - and certainly the overwhelming majority of passive investors whom have contributed through thick and thin into their mutual fund retirement accounts, have suffered. Emotions ranged from the initial “buy on the dips” to fearful watching of investment banks and Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM) imploding, to anger at the home loan practices dictated by … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - The Weekend Commodities Review
General Market Commentary
Historic volatility and fund liquidation has forced an epic selloff that, simply put, has gone too far too fast. In the beginning of 2008, marked by my 2007 Year in Review and 2008 Forecast, I called for a monumental pullback in commodity prices during a dollar rally in 2008. I may have been a little early to the party but nevertheless this industry wide price plunge is the culmination of years of commodity price inflation coming to a head. The S&P … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать - ETFs Set New Trading Records
NASDAQ (^IXIC) reported new trading records for exchange traded funds (ETFs) as of Thursday. The turbulent market ride wasn’t all just in vain as September has an average daily trading volume of 785 million shares on U.S.-listed ETFs.
What’s more, the volume of U.S. ETFs traded on NASDAQ also reached a record level for the month-16.5 billion shares traded, reports Index Universe. Month by month the National Stock Exchange (NSX) saw total percentages of U.S. equity trading of ETFs for … [visit site to read more]
Article Published On DailyMarkets.com - visit Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions for more great content. Переслать
Об этом говорят...
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