Forex blog: Forex Blog (10 сообщений)

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My Forex experience and some Forex related information that might be useful to other traders
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EUR/USD Down for the First Day This Week
EUR/USD posted its first daily decline this week today — it went down from 1.5528 to 1.5489. Even bad employment data didn’t help the euro to get higher against the U.S. dollar.

Initial jobless claims fell from 386k to 381k last week, but nevertheless were higher than 375k forecast.

May leading indicators rose 0.1% in May a similar growth in April and forecasted stagnation for this month.

Philadelphia Fed index decreased slightly in June — from -15.6 to -17.1. It was expected to rise to -10.
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U.S. Dollar Continues to on Fall Weak News
EUR/USD went up today but it failed to reach the yesterday’s gain or to go above the Thursday’s open level. The economic news from U.S. were weak except the Producer Price Index indicator, which benefit for the dollar’s appreciation is debatable.

PPI in May rose 1.4%, while core PPI gained 0.2% during the same period. The forecast values were 1.0% and 0.2% respectively. May increase followed 0.2% and 0.4% increase in April.

Housing starts and building permits were both down in May — at 975k and 969k annualized rate respectively, down from 1,008k and 982k in April. Housing starts were forecasted to come out at 980k, while building permits were expected to go down to 960k.

Industrial production fell 0.2% in May after 0.7% decline in April, missing 0.1% growth median forecast. Capacity utilization fell from 79.7% to 79.4%, while it was expected to remain unchanged in May.
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Dollar Declines in Correction
The dollar declined today on the Forex market as the growth that it has experienced during the last week required some correction. EUR/USD currency pair went up from 1.5404 to 1.5517 today. The fundamental background was mixed today in the United States.

NY Empire State manufacturing survey showed a decrease in the index — it went down from -3.2 in May to -8.7 in June, still indicating a pre-recession condition in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy.

Net foreign purchases of the U.S. long-term securities grew significantly in April — they were at $115.1 billion, up from $79.6 billion in March (revised down from $80.4 billion) and above the median forecast of $63.2 billion.
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EUR/USD Trade Idea for the Next Week
EUR/USD daily chart is currently showing a good possibility of a bearish breakout from the range traded since April 22. You can see the present range on this picture below:

If the next trading day closes below the current support line (which is near 1.5379 level), there is a great possibility of a fast drop on EUR/USD down to about 1.5000 rate. On the other hand it can fall back from the current level and continue trading within the range. Anyway if the range persists, a closing bar below the lower bond will mean a strong bearish breakout, while a close above the upper bond wouldn’t necessarily mean a bullish breakout.
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Forex Technical Analysis for 06/16—06/20 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.4632	1.4967	1.5173	1.5508	1.5714	1.6049	1.6255
GBP/USD	1.8931	1.9169	1.9323	1.9561	1.9715	1.9953	2.0107
USD/JPY	101.69	103.06	105.63	107.00	109.57	110.94	113.51
EUR/JPY	163.03	164.00	165.20	166.17	167.37	168.34	169.54

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.4935	1.5109	1.5476	1.5650	1.6017
GBP/USD	1.9169	1.9323	1.9561	1.9715	1.9953
USD/JPY	103.06	105.63	107.00	109.57	110.94
EUR/JPY	164.00	165.20	166.17	167.37	168.34

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.5081	1.5230	1.5280	1.5329	1.5429	1.5478	1.5528	1.5677
GBP/USD	1.9260	1.9368	1.9404	1.9440	1.9512	1.9548	1.9584	1.9692
USD/JPY	106.02	107.11	107.47	107.83	108.55	108.91	109.27	110.36
EUR/JPY	165.21	165.80	166.00	166.20	166.60	166.80	167.00	167.59

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance	1.5611	1.9834	110.26	166.77
Support	1.5070	1.9442	106.32	164.60

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.5843	1.9800	108.38	167.14
61.8%	1.5636	1.9650	106.87	166.31
50.0%	1.5573	1.9604	106.41	166.06
38.2%	1.5509	1.9558	105.95	165.80
23.6%	1.5430	1.9501	105.37	165.48
0.0%	1.5302	1.9408	104.44	164.97

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Dollar Got Pushed Up by Today's Fundamental Reports
The EUR/USD currency pair sunk down below the yesterday’s close level as the U.S. dollar continued its growth today after some good fundamental reports were released in the United States. Both retail sales and business inventories fulfilled the dollar bulls’ expectations today.

Import and export prices rose in May by 2.3% and 0.3% respectively. That growth followed 2.4% and 0.5% values that were seen a month before.

Initial jobless claims was the one disappointing indicator released today. They rose from 359k to 384k last week, while a growth to 370k was forecasted.

Retail sales report dominated the fundamental trading today. It showed the 1.0% increase for May which was above the consensus 0.5% growth and 0.4% growth in April.

Business inventories added 0.5% in April — a little more than 0.2% a month before and 0.3% average forecast for April.
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FX Destroyer Strategy Ebook
I uploaded a new Forex ebook to the site today — it’s called FX Destroyer. It was sent to me by one of the site visitors a couple of days ago. Although it’s full of advertising and it can’t be considered a «real book» due to the lack of theoretical base, it offers an interesting yet simple trading strategy that is free for everyone to try. I hadn’t enough time to test fully the FX Destroyer strategy that is presented in this ebook, but I hope that some of the traders who download this ebook will report on their testing results. If someone will find this strategy extremely unprofitable, please, don’t hesitate to comment about it here.
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GDI Markets — Another Broker from U.K.
Today I added another British Forex broker to the list on my site — GDI Markets. It offers Forex, CFDs, Futures and Stocks trading services through a single trading platform. The platform itself isn’t very interesting or special, but it does its work and can be handy for multi-market traders. One serious disadvantage this broker has is that it charges commission fees for each order below a certain threshold (1 standard lot usually). This is not a problem for the big traders, but those accustomed to the mini Forex accounts may find such conditions unacceptable. On the other hand GDI Markets is registered with FSA and should be a good safe broker for the serious traders.
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Forex Technical Analysis for 06/09—06/13 Week

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.5090	1.5228	1.5502	1.5640	1.5914	1.6052	1.6326
GBP/USD	1.9212	1.9336	1.9522	1.9646	1.9832	1.9956	2.0142
USD/JPY	101.17	102.52	103.72	105.07	106.27	107.62	108.82
EUR/JPY	158.36	160.04	162.79	164.47	167.22	168.90	171.65

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.5262	1.5571	1.5674	1.5983	1.6086
GBP/USD	1.9336	1.9522	1.9646	1.9832	1.9956
USD/JPY	102.52	103.72	105.07	106.27	107.62
EUR/JPY	160.04	162.79	164.47	167.22	168.90

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.5550	1.5664	1.5701	1.5739	1.5815	1.5853	1.5890	1.6004
GBP/USD	1.9537	1.9622	1.9650	1.9679	1.9735	1.9764	1.9792	1.9878
USD/JPY	103.52	104.22	104.45	104.69	105.15	105.39	105.62	106.32
EUR/JPY	163.10	164.32	164.73	165.13	165.95	166.35	166.76	167.98

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance	1.5777	1.9894	106.95	168.06
Support	1.5365	1.9584	104.40	163.63

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.5777	1.9771	106.42	166.15
61.8%	1.5620	1.9653	105.45	164.46
50.0%	1.5571	1.9616	105.15	163.94
38.2%	1.5522	1.9579	104.84	163.41
23.6%	1.5462	1.9534	104.47	162.77
0.0%	1.5365	1.9461	103.87	161.72

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Dollar Deeps Further on Uneployment Rapid Growth
The U. S. dollar dropped down today against as the unemployment rate soared in the U. S. Yesterday EUR/USD gained from the hawkish statement by Jean-Claude Trichet (he said that he will probably raise the interest rates on ECB’s next meeting), today it grows because of the poor U.S. fundamentals.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 49,000 in May — below the expected 60,000 dropdown, but above the revised April 28,000 loss in the jobs. Unemployment rate soared up from 5.0% a month ago to 5.5% in May; the market analysts predicted only a slight growth from 5.0% to 5.1%.

Wholesale inventories report for April showed a better dynamics — they rose 1.3% after 0.1% gain in March (revised up from -0.1%) and 0.4% growth estimate for April.
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